Lane Kiffin’s first year at LSU just got a whole lot tougher after the No. 14 Tigers dropped their third game of the season on Saturday, falling 31-13 to Alabama in Baton Rouge. This wasn’t just another loss; it was their first at home all season, and it definitely makes that College Football Playoff dream look like an uphill battle. Before the Bama game, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave LSU just a 51.7% chance to make the CFP, and being 14th in the initial rankings already had them outside the Top-12. So, what now? Is it over? Not quite, because somehow, there’s still a crazy path forward.
The Resume So Far: A Mixed Bag for the Tigers
Let’s break down where LSU stands. They’ve got some wins against unranked, power-conference opponents like Clemson. In the SEC, they snagged a road win over Auburn, plus home victories against Texas A&M and Mississippi State. That’s the good news. The bad? That Week 3 road loss to Ole Miss, 32-24, came down to the absolute last play. And then there’s the 35-34 overtime loss to Kentucky, a team that was unranked at the time but has since climbed to No. 7 in the country. Let’s be real, wins against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State aren’t exactly committee-movers. The committee even ranked Alabama fifth in the nation despite two losses, which tells you they see the Tide as a powerhouse, and LSU losing to them at home doesn’t exactly help their case.
The Gauntlet Ahead and a Wild Scenario for the CFP
Here’s where it gets interesting: LSU’s remaining schedule is absolutely brutal, which paradoxically might be their saving grace. They’re still facing two Top-15 teams: No. 7 Texas at home on November 14th, and then a road trip to take on No. 13 Tennessee on November 21st. They’ll finish out the regular season on the road against Arkansas on November 28th. ESPN’s FPI actually pegs LSU with the No. 3 overall remaining strength of schedule. If Kiffin’s squad somehow manages to defeat both Texas and Tennessee, and then convincingly wins out against Arkansas, there’s a legitimate argument to be made for them come December. Plus, other teams currently ahead of LSU,think Notre Dame, Ole Miss, or even Tennessee,could stumble, opening a door. According to Allstate’s Playoff Predictor, LSU has a wild 73% chance to make the CFP if they beat Texas and Tennessee, and win out over Arkansas, all while failing to make the SEC title game, which is already expected.
So, the next few weeks are everything. LSU has to deliver. It all starts with that massive home game against No. 7 Texas on November 14th. This is it, folks. This is where they either prove they belong or fall out of contention for good. Can Kiffin pull off the improbable? We’re about to find out!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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