Keider Montero is absolutely dealing for the Detroit Tigers this season, rocking a 3.14 ERA and 2.2 fWAR over 106 innings in 22 games, 16 of them starts. But get this: despite those legit numbers, the dude can hardly hold down a spot in their starting rotation. What in the world is going on in the Motor City with a team sitting at 48-54? It’s a head-scratcher, especially when you consider Montero’s been arguably Detroit’s most valuable pitcher this year.
The Roller Coaster Ride of Detroit’s Secret Weapon
Montero’s 2026 season has been a wild one, a real rollercoaster from the jump. He got called up on April 4th to start, and he pitched excellently. Then, he went to the bullpen on June 16th. Five days later, he was starting again on June 21st. The whole month of July, he was back in the bullpen before getting another start against the Cubs on July 22nd. This isn’t just about a guy pitching well, it’s about a guy who’s genuinely improved his game across the board. He’s throwing harder, showing way better command, and generating weaker contact than in 2024 or 2025. His walk rate is a career low and ranks 8th best in the entire league, and his HR/FB rate is a crazy 4th best. Yeah, there’s been a little good fortune, but not much, because this guy has legitimately pitched his way into any future rotation plans. All this while the Tigers’ rotation, despite injuries to Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, and Troy Melton, still boasts the 6th highest fWAR and 3rd lowest ERA in all of baseball. So, with Montero dealing, the big question hanging over Comerica Park has to be: what’s the best way to use Keider Montero?
Cracking the Code: How Do You Value a Reliever Anyway?
This whole situation with Montero forces us to think about how we even measure a pitcher’s value. Analysts lean on two main methods. First, there’s fWAR, which tries to sum up player value based on volume, like innings pitched, and context-blind performance, usually FIP. It’s not perfect, but it’s simple, and it does a super good job showing who adds the most talent over a full season. Plus, because it uses FIP, it’s pretty good at predicting future results, which is why it’s used so often.
Then there’s Win Probability Added, or WPA. This one’s different. It checks the Win Expectancy before and after every play and credits the change to the pitcher or hitter. The crucial part here is that WPA isn’t context-blind; a shutdown save in a tight game matters way more than a shutdown 4th inning in a 9-0 blowout. Both fWAR and WPA accumulate over the season. But when it comes to predicting future performance, fWAR takes the cake. For Montero, his fWAR clearly shows his value, but his constantly shifting role might make his WPA look totally different.
This leaves Detroit with a huge puzzle. How do you maximize Montero’s obvious talent and keep him effective when his role keeps changing? It’s a challenge, and figuring it out could be huge for the Tigers as they navigate the rest of their season.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Bless You Boys.
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