Kris Bubic, a 29-year-old lefty pitcher, is hitting free agency after seven big league seasons, and his numbers tell two completely different stories. Over the last four years, this guy is rocking a stellar 2.98 ERA with a 2.91 FIP, but the nasty truth is the dude can barely stay on the mound.
When He’s On, He’s Lights Out
Listen, when Bubic is healthy, he’s straight up dominant. Since the 2023 season kicked off, he’s posted that ridiculous 2.98 ERA over 217 ⅔ innings, holding opponents to a tiny 0.5 HR/9. That’s a huge drop from his first three years where he was giving up 1.4 HR/9. The guy’s been evolving too. He started with a four-seam, curve, and changeup combo, then dropped a slider into the mix in 2023. That year, he opened the season in the rotation and was absolutely fantastic in his first two starts, throwing 11 innings, giving up just 2 runs, and striking out 13 batters. And then in 2024, after coming back, he lit up the bullpen with a 2.67 ERA over 27 appearances, punching out 11.6 batters per nine innings. Seriously, that was the best strikeout rate of his career. By 2025, Bubic added a fifth pitch, a sinker, and went back into the rotation. He was straight up dominant for 20 starts, posting a 2.55 ERA, earning himself an All-Star selection, going 8-7. His fastball sits around 92 MPH, and his secondary stuff is nasty, especially that changeup, which he uses exclusively against right-handed hitters. They hit a paltry .119 against it this year, and it’s been under .200 for three years running. That’s elite, folks.
The Brutal Injury Report
So, if he’s that good, why isn’t everyone ready to throw cash at him? Because the problem is, he’s usually not available to be on the mound. After those two stellar starts in 2023, he injured himself in his third outing and needed Tommy John surgery. That kept him sidelined for half of 2024. Then in 2025, after making his All-Star team, he strained his left rotator cuff before the end of July and missed most of the season. 2026 was pretty much the same story. He came out firing with a 3.32 ERA through seven starts, but then had multiple poor outings before an elbow injury landed him on the IL until September. He was even traded to the Dodgers as a depth pitching piece while he was sidelined. He finally returned for 4 ⅔ shutout innings out of the bullpen and made two short relief appearances in the postseason, throwing 1 ⅓ innings and giving up 2 runs. This guy has serious talent, but his body just hasn’t cooperated.
Bubic finished 2026 with 14 games played, nine of them starts, tossing 55 innings with a 4-2 record and a 3.76 ERA. His WHIP was 1.20, and opponents hit .202 against him, with 26 walks and 56 strikeouts, putting his K-BB% at 13.3%. Yeah, the numbers for his latest season took a slight hit because of all the stops and starts, but that overall talent is still flashing. Now he’s a free agent, and teams like the Red Sox are looking at him as a talented left-handed arm who could beef up an already solid bullpen. The Red Sox’s rotation is apparently flush with lefties, so a bullpen role seems like the play. Whoever signs him is gambling on that incredible upside winning out over an absolutely brutal injury history. What kind of deal does a high-risk, high-reward arm like Bubic pull down? That’s the question everyone’s waiting to see answered as free agency heats up.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Over the Monster.
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