Paul Skenes, the reigning 2025 NL Cy Young Award winner, is facing a serious collapse on the mound, becoming a “real liability” for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sure, his 3.96 ERA on the season might look okay at first glance, but his recent performances? They are absolutely gut-wrenching and paint a picture of a pitcher in deep trouble. This isn’t just a slump; we’re talking about a terrifying regression that could derail their entire season.
The Unacceptable Slide in Performance
When you’re the NL Cy Young winner, the expectations are sky-high, right? But Skenes has been anything but that ace lately. The numbers, as @jayhaykid shared on X, are screaming for help: his ERA has rocketed from 5.20 over his last 15 starts, spiraling to a horrific 6.14 in his last seven, and crashing down to an alarming 8.16 across his most recent three outings. Let that sink in. An 8.16 ERA for a Cy Young winner? That’s not a blip, that’s a full-blown crisis.
His last time out was a painful 5.0-inning loss against the Milwaukee Brewers. He gave up three runs on just two hits, but the real kicker? Four walks. FOUR. The outing before that, against the Cincinnati Reds, was even messier: 4.0 innings, seven hits, four walks again, and five runs allowed. This isn’t the dominant Skenes we saw last year. He hasn’t just gone from elite to good; the man has actively transformed into a massive on-field liability. Since his May 17 start against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he allowed five earned runs in five innings, Skenes holds a deeply concerning 3-8 record with a 5.20 ERA. That’s just not acceptable for someone meant to lead a rotation.
The Underlying Metrics Are Telling a Dark Story
Now, there’s one small glimmer: his 3.18 FIP does suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. But honestly, that’s like saying you only got a flat tire when your car is actually on fire. The real alarm bells are ringing because of what’s happening beneath the surface, and this should be a massive concern moving forward. According to Baseball Savant, Skenes’ average fastball velocity this season is down a significant 1.6 mph compared to last year. A drop like that for a power pitcher? That’s huge! It tells you everything you need to know about why he’s struggling to get guys out.
He’s also missing the strike zone more often now, which leads to those frustrating walks. And hitters? They’re absolutely teeing off on him, connecting with the ball harder and more frequently than they did in his Cy Young campaign. Look, nobody is saying he’s suddenly a bad pitcher, and his overall season numbers might even look better if not for some bad luck. But when you combine the shocking recent ERAs with that measurable drop in fastball velocity, it’s impossible not to be concerned. This isn’t just a slump you can pitch through; this is an indicator of something deeper.
Paul Skenes is absolutely imperative to the Pirates’ hunt for a postseason spot. They’ve got a great offense and their bullpen is revitalized after the trade deadline, but their starting rotation, which *might* be their biggest strength, is only as good as its ace. If Skenes can’t turn things around, and quickly, those playoff dreams are going to get a lot more troublesome for Pittsburgh.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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