Fantasy drafts are kicking off for real this August 2026, and the early CBS Sports Average Draft Position data is already dropping some wild takes. We’re talking picks that make you scratch your head, and others that look like pure gold. If you’re not studying this data, you’re already behind, because some QBs are going for prices that just don’t make sense.
The Josh Allen Overdraft Is Coming For Your Season
Josh Allen is riding high with an ADP of 20.9, making him the only quarterback being snagged in the first three rounds. Lamar Jackson barely sniffs that range, coming in at 40.8. Matthew Stafford, who was the No. 1 fantasy points earner in 2025, is chilling all the way down at 98.6. I love Allen, but I am *not* taking him in Round 2. The value is just too good at the position to blow such an early pick. You could target Justin Herbert at 86.1, Trevor Lawrence at 98.5, or wait for Jared Goff at 114.5. Allen would need to absolutely obliterate the field to justify that cost, even with D.J. Moore, and I just don’t see it. Let someone else make that mistake in your league.
Mahomes: The Risky QB2 You Might Actually Want
Now, let’s talk about Patrick Mahomes, who’s sliding in at QB14 with an ADP of 101.9. That price actually feels about right for this season. Don’t go chasing his name as a starter, because he’s strictly a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback this year. Mahomes is coming off a brutal torn ACL and LCL in his knee from last season, even if he is expected to play in Week 1. Before that injury, he was having his best Fantasy season since 2022, dropping 23.6 points per game, partly thanks to a career high 422 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in just 14 games. With that knee injury, it’s incredibly hard to imagine him relying on his legs this season. Plus, the Chiefs look ready to run the ball more after signing Kenneth Walker III. If someone else wants to draft him as their QB1, let them. You should only be looking at Mahomes as a high-end QB2, period.
The Sleepers You Need to Snag
This ADP data also highlights why waiting on a quarterback makes so much sense. We’re seeing guys like Jared Goff at 114.5, Bo Nix at 130.3, Kyler Murray at 138.2, Tyler Shough at 146.9, and Malik Willis at 152.1 all falling to Round 10 or later. Goff has averaged at least 20.1 Fantasy points per game for the Lions in each of the past four seasons, hitting a high of 23.4 points per game in 2024. He’s consistently passed for at least 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns every year. And the Lions have an amazing schedule coming up! You can load up on elite skill position players early and still grab a rock-solid QB later. Don’t be the person who reaches when there’s so much value to be had.
So, when your draft clock starts ticking, are you going to get caught up in the hype and overspend on a quarterback, or are you going to play it smart and grab some of these insane values? Your fantasy season starts on draft day, so use this ADP data to make the right moves. Don’t get burned!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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