Sixty-six percent of Seahawks fans are predicting that Super Bowl winning quarterback Sam Darnold will throw between 31 and 39 combined regular season and playoff touchdowns in 2026. This isn’t just a shot in the dark, either. Our guy Darnold threw a combined 36 touchdowns in 2024 and followed that up with 30 touchdown passes in 2025. That averages out to 33 scores, putting the majority of the Emerald City faithful right in that sweet spot for what they expect from their QB.
Run-First Mentality or Darnold’s True Potential?
It’s interesting to see that seven percent of the 12s think Darnold will repeat his 2025 performance, hitting exactly 30 touchdowns. With the Seahawks leaning into that old school, ground and pound offense that wants to run first and throw second, you can see why some might predict a similar output. The team is keeping most of the offensive staff and players from last season too, so consistency could mean similar numbers, ideally with fewer turnovers. But honestly, I’d argue that with the same team and the same offensive scheme, Darnold can build on his success from last year, cut those turnovers, and maybe even put up numbers like he did back in Minnesota.
Then there’s the 15% of fans who think Darnold will only toss 20-29 touchdowns in 2026. That number is a head-scratcher. He only threw that few in a complete season once, way back in 2017 at USC, when he had 26 touchdowns. Sure, he threw fewer than 20 TDs early in his career, but that was because he wasn’t playing full seasons, missing games with the Jets. When he’s actually had the chance to play a full NFL season, he’s never gone below 30 touchdowns.
Let’s Get Wild: The 40-Touchdown Dream
Now, for my favorite group: the 12% of fans who believe Darnold can sling it for more than 40 touchdowns in 2026. To those fans, I say: let’s absolutely do this! Darnold has averaged about two touchdown passes per game over the last two years. In a 17-game regular season, that gets you to 34 touchdowns. But if the Seahawks rip through the Wild Card round and make it all the way to the Super Bowl, that could add another eight potential touchdowns to his total, bringing him to a whopping 42 scores in 2026! How awesome would that be to witness at Lumen Field?
So, what do you think, Seattle? Is Darnold destined for that 31-39 range, or are you in that bold 12% dreaming of 40-plus? What’s your magic number for his touchdown total this upcoming season? Hit the comments below, let’s debate, and keep running it forward!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
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