Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a paltry six home runs this season, and the Toronto Blue Jays are limping out of the All-Star break under .500, sitting squarely outside of a postseason spot. It’s been rough, man. But even with all that going on, Joel Reuter from Bleacher Report just dropped a prediction so wild it’ll make you wonder if he’s been watching the same games we have. He thinks Guerrero won’t just turn things around, he’ll lead all of MLB in homers for the entire second half of the season. Seriously.
Vladdy’s Struggles and a Wild Bet
Let’s be real, the Blue Jays are not having the season they wanted. Coming out of the All-Star break, they’re under .500, a complete bummer, even if that weak AL Wild Card hunt technically means they still have a shot. But the biggest headache? It has to be Vladdy Jr.’s bat. This dude, who was mashing just a year ago, looks like a shadow of his former self. Six home runs through 92 games? His home run rate is a pathetic 1.5% right now, less than half what he’s posted in all but his rookie year. It’s tough to watch.
But then Reuter throws this out there: “Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads MLB in second-half home runs.” This is a 27-year-old who absolutely needs to dramatically improve his play for that to even come close to happening. We’re talking about a guy who had 23 homers in 2025, 30 the year before, and even cranked 48 dingers in 2021. He’s proven he *can* catch fire, sure. Two of his six homers this season even came in the final four games of the first half, which is… something. But leading the *entire league* after what we’ve seen? That feels like a stretch.
History Says He Could Get Hot, But THIS Hot?
So, what’s Reuter banking on? There’s one glimmer of hope, actually. Guerrero tends to be a better slugger in the second half of his career. Dig into the numbers: he’s hit 79 home runs in the second half across 1,558 at-bats. Compare that to his 101 homers in 2,295 first-half at-bats. That shakes out to a 5.0% home run rate in the second half, versus 4.4% in the first half for his career. It’s not a massive jump, but he definitely ramps it up as the season rolls on.
Look, would it be shocking for him to hit more than six homers in the second half? Nah, that’s not impossible at all. He’s got the power. But for Guerrero to actually lead all of MLB in home runs post-All-Star break? That would be a truly wild outcome, especially considering the brutal first half he just put up. We’re talking about a complete transformation, a guy who goes from struggling to arguably the hottest hitter in baseball.
It’s the kind of bold prediction that makes you either laugh or lean forward, wondering if, just maybe, Vladdy Jr. has something epic in store. The Blue Jays season, and maybe even Guerrero’s reputation, could depend on it. Can he make history and prove everyone wrong? We’re about to find out.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
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