The 2026 NFL season kicks off in three weeks, and if you’re prepping your fantasy draft board, listen up: SportsLine’s data geeks released their simulation results, flagging Giants receiver Malik Nabers as a major bust candidate for your early rounds. This isn’t some wild guess, it’s a model with a seriously scary track record.
The Model That Saw McLaurin’s Crash Coming
You remember what happened last year with Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin, right? Everyone had him pegged for another big year, probably a top-50 pick in your draft. Well, the SportsLine model called it. McLaurin had put up nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches the season before, an absolute monster. Then, BOOM. He crashed hard in 2025, hitting career lows with only 582 receiving yards and a measly 3 touchdowns. Injuries played a part, sure, but his per-game numbers were down across the board. Anyone who skipped him in their draft avoided a massive headache, and that was all thanks to this model.
This isn’t a one-off hit either. This same system has been dropping truth bombs for years. It nailed A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, totally called Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and even predicted C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Go back further, and it spotted sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. So yeah, when this model speaks, you better listen up, especially when it’s screaming “bust!”
Malik Nabers: Not Your Top-15 Guy, No Matter the ADP
Now, let’s talk about the specific warning it’s throwing out for 2026: Malik Nabers. This guy is flying off draft boards around pick No. 34. People are hyped! But SportsLine’s simulations, after running the entire NFL season 10,000 times, aren’t buying it. The model doesn’t even have Nabers as a top-15 receiver. Seriously! It’s got guys like DeVonta Smith and Nico Collins projected to outperform him.
And when you dig into why, it starts to make sense. Nabers tore his ACL last season, and then had a follow-up procedure this spring. That’s a huge red flag for readiness at the start of the season. Plus, and this is the sneaky part, the Giants are expected to lean HARD on the run game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Think about it: a recovering receiver on an offense that wants to keep the ball on the ground? That’s a recipe for low targets and even lower fantasy production. Taking Nabers in the second or early third round looks like a super risky gamble, and one that could sink your team before Week 1 is even over.
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off on Wednesday, Sept. 9. That’s crunch time, folks. Are you gonna roll the dice on a guy with a questionable injury history and an offense built for pounding the rock? Your fantasy championship might just depend on trusting the numbers and dodging a major bullet like Nabers. Better hit up SportsLine and see who else they’re calling out before your draft!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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