Alright, so it’s Preseason Week 2, 2026, and we’ve got a cross-state showdown brewing: Los Angeles Chargers hosting the San Francisco 49ers at SoFi Stadium. But before you get hyped for a shootout, hold up, because expert handicapper Jeff Hochman has dropped his pick for this Thursday night tilt, and he’s leaning hard on the Under 39 total points. This isn’t just some random guess, either. Hochman’s got a proven track record, rocking a 99-88-3 (+686) over the last five NFL seasons, and his reasoning for this game is something you need to see.
The Preseason Reality Check Is Here
Look, we all want to see the star power. Justin Herbert for the Chargers and Brock Purdy for the Niners are expected to hit the field Thursday night. But don’t blink, because if last year was any indication, these guys are likely playing just one series each for the entire preseason. That’s it! Week 1 already gave us a taste of the backup grind, with the Niners falling 19-13 to Tennessee and the Chargers, led by former Niners top pick QB Trey Lance, snagging a 27-7 win against Houston. Preseason history between these two cross-state rivals tells a story too: 45 meetings, with San Fran holding a 26-19 edge. But for total points, things get even more interesting.
Hochman’s Deep Dive Into The Numbers
So, with the over/under set at 39 points via SportsLine consensus, Hochman isn’t just throwing darts. He’s looking at a combination of factors that point directly to less scoring. Both teams saw the Under hit in their preseason openers, and that makes total sense when backup quarterbacks are taking almost all the snaps. Then you look at the recent matchups between the Chargers and 49ers themselves. Three of the last four times these squads met, whether it was preseason or regular season, they combined for under 39 total points. That’s a pattern, folks. Not just a fluke.
Injuries, History, And Why The Under Is So Strong
And here’s another kicker: San Fran is probably gonna be without some serious firepower. Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans have both reportedly missed practice time due to something labeled ‘tig’. You know what that means: coaches being extra cautious with their studs in August. No McCaffrey, no Evans, that’s huge for offensive production. Plus, the Chargers themselves were an ‘Under’ machine last year. Their games went Under 39 total points 11-6-1 (64.7%) through the regular and postseason. Only two teams hit the Under more often. When you stack all these facts up, it’s hard to argue with Hochman’s call.
Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from SoFi. So when you tune in Thursday, don’t just watch for the limited snaps from Herbert and Purdy. Keep an eye on those backup QBs, how effectively they move the ball, and if the defenses are already dialing up the pressure. This preseason game might be about evaluation, but for those following Hochman, it’s all about that Under 39. Can these teams stay under the radar and prove the expert right? We’re about to find out.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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