The 2026 fantasy football season is already serving up some wild takes, and trust me, you need to see this: a ‘Do Not Draft’ list of quarterbacks who are wildly overrated in half-point PPR leagues. These aren’t undraftable guys, but their current cost, based on consensus rankings and average draft position (ADP), makes them terrible value picks, straight up not worth it. We’re talking about players stuck between those obvious studs and the appealing sleepers, maybe even in bad environments that just won’t maximize their production. This is your buyer-beware guide.
High-Stakes Busts: The Top QBs Who Will Cost You
First up, let’s talk about Lamar Jackson, who’s ranked QB2 with an ADP of 33. Seriously? That’s a high third-round price for a guy who’s shown volatility with durability, and now he’s adjusting to a brand new offense under Declan Doyle. Josh Allen is the only sure bet for an early QB, but Jackson isn’t. You can find way better value at quarterback in one-QB leagues! Drake Maye and Joe Burrow are sitting there in the fourth and fifth rounds, and Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams can even be had as late as the sixth. Why would you pay up for Jackson when those guys are around?
Then there’s Jayden Daniels, ranked QB5 with an ADP of 61. The vibes around him are just not great, especially after an injury-marred Year 2 that was basically the opposite of his rookie season. Let’s not jump to calling him “RGIII Part II” yet, but drafting him between the Maye-Burrow and Hurts-Williams tiers is a massive reach. Losing Kliff Kingsbury’s running QB-friendly offense to David Blough is a huge factor you just can’t ignore, either.
Don’t Fall for the Hype: Overvalued Stars
Next on the list is Justin Herbert, who’s QB8 with an ADP of 69. Hold up, let’s pump the brakes on the Herbert hype. The Chargers are leaning into a strong running identity now with Mike McDaniel calling the offensive plays and John Harbaugh in charge. While he’s got ample weapons, the big concern is whether he’ll get the necessary passing volume, we’re talking more than 600 attempts, to actually put up his first 30-touchdown season since way back in 2021. Plus, his rushing production topped out last season, so a regression to the mean is definitely on the horizon. Herbert needs to be a better “reality QB” who can win in the playoffs with his support, not a fantasy juggernaut.
And yes, even Patrick Mahomes, QB12 with an ADP of 107, is on this list. No surprise he’s coming back from his torn ACL to start Week 1, but don’t expect the same old Mahomes. His passing numbers might be curbed with Eric Bieniemy back to push Andy Reid for more balance in the offense. Mahomes shouldn’t be running as much himself and will be looking to execute big plays off the run rather than just forcing volume. He’s still priced high as a borderline QB1, but with all these variables, that’s a risky bet. And finally, Bo Nix, QB14 with an ADP of 117, also made the list.
So, when your draft rolls around, remember these names. Passing on these overvalued QBs means you can snag some serious value later. Don’t fall for the hype, secure your quarterback without breaking the bank, and set yourself up for a killer season. Your draft strategy just got a serious upgrade, you’re welcome.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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