Alright, listen up! A super-smart computer model that just nailed Daniel Jones’ huge year has dropped its latest 2026 fantasy football rankings, and one name is jumping out for all the wrong reasons if you are drafting right now. We’re talking about Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce, who just inked a massive four-year, $114 million contract extension, yet his average draft position is hovering around No. 79 overall. What in the world is going on with that kind of value?
The Model That Called It All, Seriously
This isn’t some random guess, folks. The SportsLine model simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times, and it has a seriously, seriously impressive track record you cannot ignore. Remember when Daniel Jones fully realized his potential in his first year in Indy? Yeah, that was the model calling him as a top-15 fantasy quarterback for 2025. He was actually QB10 before an injury sidelined him in Week 14, still finishing as QB17 for the year. Anyone who snagged him in drafts was surely rewarded when he was in the lineup, no doubt about it.
But it’s not just Jones. This same proven model absolutely crushed it with Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, nailed Rachaad White’s breakout year in 2023, and even pinpointed Isiah Pacheco as a bust in 2025. It also called past fantasy football sleepers like A.J. Brown in 2020, Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. When this model talks, especially this early in the season with drafts looming, you absolutely have to listen for your draft strategy. This is the kind of insight that wins leagues!
Big Money, Big Question Marks, and a Massive Sleeper Play
So, back to Alec Pierce. This guy was a legit big-play threat last year, finishing second in the entire league with an insane 21.3 yards per reception. He put up a 47-1003-6 receiving line and was a top-25 fantasy WR. He earned that monster $114 million deal, no doubt. But here’s the kicker: he is currently rehabbing an ankle injury in camp, and that’s probably why his ADP has slipped all the way to around No. 79 overall. Could this be a steal, or is the injury a real red flag?
While Pierce is sliding, another name is absolutely rocketing up draft boards, and you need to pay attention: Texans running back David Montgomery. He’s been one of the biggest ADP risers this past week, jumping from around pick No. 60 to No. 49! Fantasy players are getting hyped about his upside as the lead back, especially after splitting carries with Jahmyr Gibbs in previous seasons. Montgomery finished as the RB27 in PPR leagues last year, so the idea of him getting a full workload has people scrambling to grab him earlier than ever.
With just one preseason game left for all 32 NFL teams, draft boards are solidifying fast. Players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Jonathan Taylor are still flying off the board first. But you gotta ask yourself, with your draft on the line: are you willing to take a chance on a proven big-play threat like Pierce, rehabbing an ankle, at what looks like an insane value? Or will you jump on the Montgomery hype train before it leaves the station for good? This model has the full rankings and all the sleepers, breakouts, and busts you need to dominate your league. Don’t wait until it is too late to get these insights!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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