After a brutal 2025 season where the Kansas City Chiefs stumbled through close games and saw Patrick Mahomes hit the injury list, the word from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is in: Mahomes’ career 65% win rate in one-score games is the stat that could flip their entire 2026. This team has a lot of optimism, and it all hinges on those tight finishes.
From Nightmare to Hope: The Close Game Rollercoaster
Man, last year was a gut punch for Kansas City. We’re talking a nightmare 2025 season where they dropped plenty of close ones. The worst part? Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury. Their record in one-score games was a brutal 1-9. That’s a tough pill to swallow for any team, let alone one with Mahomes. But here’s the kicker: just one year prior, in the 2024 regular season, the Chiefs were untouchable in those same nail-biters, going a perfect 10-0. Talk about whiplash! Barnwell writes that unless we see a dramatically different level of play, “so much of that might come down to those one-score games and how things pan out in the final minutes of close contests.” It’s hard to imagine they’ll be on either extreme again; somewhere in the middle feels way more likely.
Mahomes’ Magic: The Path Back to the Top
So, what happens if the Chiefs can get their act together in those tight situations? Barnwell laid out two clear outcomes for Kansas City. First, if they simply start winning half of those one-score games (think 50%), that’s enough to get them back into the playoffs. A playoff team with Mahomes? Yeah, that’s dangerous. That’s a deep playoff run waiting to happen. But then there’s the big one: if they can win about 65% of the time, which is Mahomes’ career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer, Barnwell believes that could push Kansas City right back atop the AFC West. That’s the difference between just getting in and owning the division.
It’s clear that the Chiefs are banking on Mahomes’ return to form and a rebound in their luck, or skill, in those ridiculously close games. If he can bring his typical magic to the final minutes, that AFC West title might just be theirs for the taking this upcoming season.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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