As the 2026 college football season blasts off this weekend, the heat is already scorching for a handful of head coaches, with Dave Aranda at Baylor and Mike Locksley at Maryland facing down the end of their tenures. Early predictions are saying both are staring at 2027 from the outside looking in, making this season a true make-or-break before it even truly begins.
Aranda’s Last Shot in Waco?
Man, talk about a program in flux. Dave Aranda is only still at Baylor because their former AD Mack Rhoades went completely off the rails and eventually parted ways with the program in 2025. Last year, the Bears only managed five wins, which is wild considering they were actually expected to contend for the Big 12! Aranda definitely went all in this offseason, making some big moves by snagging new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman from Kansas State and bringing in a bunch of new faces to the roster. But let’s be real, his fate hinges completely on the arm of new QB DJ Lagway. If they have another season with six or fewer wins, that’s it. Prediction? He’s out after 2026.
Fickell Needs to Flip the Script in Madison
Luke Fickell was an absolute rockstar at Cincinnati, right? He had that program humming. But his three seasons at Wisconsin? Straight up failure. He’s sitting on a dismal 17-21 record, and get this, the Badgers have had two losing seasons in a row. This is truly do-or-die for him in Madison. Just like Aranda, Fickell went out and grabbed a new QB he desperately needs to pan out: Colton Joseph, a dual-threat star who transferred in from Old Dominion. But the Big Ten is a whole different beast than the AAC, and that Badgers’ defense, man, it absolutely has to be up to the challenge. It feels like he needs to hit eight wins this season to even sniff safety for 2027. The good news for him, according to the crystal ball, is the prediction: Safe for 2027. He has to earn it, though.
Locksley’s Recruiting Machine Can’t Mask the Losses
Mike Locksley at Maryland is in a super tough spot. He’s only won four games in each of the last two seasons. That’s rough, especially when you’re trying to build something. The crazy part is Maryland is recruiting better than ever! Locksley landed four-star QB Malik Washington and edge rusher Zahir Mathis last year, and then this season, they’ve got five-star edge rusher Zion Elee coming into College Park. Those are legit gets! But recruiting doesn’t automatically put wins on the board. It’s gotta translate. Fans can’t buy in when you’re looking at three losing seasons in a row, and honestly, it’s hard to picture Maryland actually having a winning season this year with that track record. The prediction for Locksley? Out after 2026. This is his final stand.
So, there it is. The 2026 college football season kicks off, and for some coaches, it’s already a countdown to the end of their runs. Will Aranda and Locksley manage to pull off a miracle and defy these early predictions, or are these outcomes pretty much locked in? We’ll find out soon enough when the games get rolling this weekend.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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