Christian McCaffrey hit a staggering 450 total touches in 2025, including playoffs, and if you’re eyeing him at Yahoo’s ADP of 5.6 in your fantasy draft, you need to hit the brakes *right now*. This isn’t about disrespecting a legend, it’s about not sabotaging your fantasy season before it even starts. The numbers are screaming, and you’ve gotta listen if you want to hoist that league trophy.
The Aging Workhorse Trap is Real
Look, CMC is electric, we all know it. But that 450-touch workload in 2025? History tells us that’s a massive red flag. Yahoo’s Joel Smyth crunched the numbers, and in the last decade, only 10 running backs have racked up 400-plus touches, including postseason play. Wanna know how many of those were fantasy hits the *next* season? Just three. Even more concerning, those three successful backs were all 25 or younger during their big touch years. McCaffrey, on the other hand, turned 30 this past June. That’s a huge age difference when you’re talking about that kind of mileage.
Beyond the sheer volume, his efficiency took a nosedive last year. Per Fantasy Points data, he finished 2025 a shocking 48th in yards per carry, 42nd in explosive run rate, 43rd in rushing success rate, and 47th in yards after contact per attempt. Think about that for a second. Just two years ago, he was a top-10 guy in all four of those categories! The signs of decline are there, clear as day. As Justin Boone put it, if you pass on McCaffrey and he somehow defies the odds, you’ll survive. But if you draft him at his high ADP, knowing all this, and he fails? That’s a season-long regret you won’t shake.
Bad Lines and Even Worse Bets
It’s not just McCaffrey you gotta be wary of. David Montgomery (ADP 52.4) is another back Yahoo analysts are telling you to fade hard. This guy has career wear-and-tear, and to make matters worse, he’s stuck behind a Texans offensive line that has been horrific throughout the entire C.J. Stroud era. Since DeMeco Ryans and Stroud arrived in 2023, that Texans line ranks 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game. That’s just brutal. Hayden Winks noted Montgomery’s missed tackles per touch rate last year was 18%, a definite drop from his previous three seasons (27%, 21%, 24%). Plus, second-year back Woody Marks is showing a better passing down profile and improved play between the tackles in camp. With an out-of-position rookie center and three potentially washed veterans on the line, Montgomery looks like a massive risk.
Then there’s Quinshon Judkins (ADP 53.2) from the Browns. Scott Pianowski sums it up: you’re drafting into a “village” with these guys, and the Browns’ village is falling apart. They’re projected to win just 5.5 games, have arguably the “biggest clown show quarterback room” in the league, and might just have the “worst offensive line in football.” Judkins is also coming off ankle surgery. Fantasy scoring at running back is tied directly to team success, and good luck banking on the 2026 Browns for anything. RB22 in Yahoo ADP? No thanks.
The fantasy football season is almost here, with drafts firing off before September 9th. Don’t be the manager regretting a bust pick. You’ve got to make those early-round choices count and avoid these landmines. Good luck out there, and happy drafting!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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