The Chicago Bears snagged the NFC North title last season, finishing up 11-6 after a rough 0-2 start, but let me tell you, that record is not what it seems. With the NFL regular season creeping closer, those early predictions are hitting hard, and when you dig into the 2025 Bears, the numbers scream a different story than their win-loss column. They might have taken the division, but their actual expected win total was a shocking 8.8 wins, more than two full games less than they actually banked. Yikes.
NFC North Title on Shaky Ground
Breaking down the Bears’ 2025 run reveals a team that definitely rode the razor’s edge. Sure, they went 11-6 and claimed the NFC North. But that came with a last place schedule, and they were just 3-3 in division games, splitting their series with every rival. Their offense was top ten, which is solid, but the defense was bottom ten in points, yards, and DVOA. That’s a huge red flag right there. Their net point differential was only +26, which was the third lowest among all playoff teams and tied for 15th overall across the entire league. If you’re thinking they must have won a bunch of nail-biters, you’d be absolutely right. A wild seven of their eleven wins were one-score games, and thirteen total games, including the playoffs, came down to a single score. Caleb Williams, the guy under center, and Head Coach Ben Johnson were absolutely living on the edge.
The Turnover Machine (And Why It Might Not Last)
So, how did they pull off an 11-6 season with those underlying stats? The answer is loud and clear: turnovers. The Bears defense, despite ranking 23rd in points allowed and a dismal 29th in yards allowed, absolutely dominated in takeaways. They were number one in the league, by a mile, with a massive 33 takeaways last season. To put that in perspective, that’s the same number the Vikings had in 2024. On the flip side, their offense was incredibly disciplined, committing the fewest giveaways of any team last year, with just 11 turnovers all season. They allowed more yards per play (6.0) than they gained (5.7), so it was those critical turnovers that constantly tilted games in their favor. New Head Coach Ben Johnson and his staff absolutely deserve credit for that turnaround, but the big question heading into the upcoming 2026 season is whether that kind of turnover luck can actually be sustained.
Can Chicago keep up that incredible turnover differential, or will the numbers finally catch up to them? That’s the real stake for the Bears as we look toward the 2026 season. You gotta wonder if they can win the NFC North again if they don’t get that same turnover magic.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Daily Norseman.
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