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From 23.9% to 42.1% Playoff Odds: Why Seattle’s Heart Can’t Give Up Now

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Seattle Mariners logo on gradient background — Created by the Sports On Tap desk | Source : Sports On Tap (team logos property of their respective owners)

The Mariners are sitting at 64-70 with just 28 games left to play, and suddenly, playoff odds are back on the table at a wild 42.1%. After what felt like a gut punch just a couple of weeks ago, it’s almost unbelievable we’re even talking about this, but here we are, clinging to every last bit of hope like always, right? The team’s two games behind Houston and two and a half behind Texas in the division, with a four-game gap to Cleveland for that third wild card spot. It feels like we’ve been on this rollercoaster before, but this one’s got some serious twists.

We Were All Ready to Cope, Not Hope

Let’s be real, M’s fans, there was a moment there when we were all ready to throw in the towel. Remember July 29th? That 4-2 loss to the Dodgers where FanGraphs actually dropped our playoff odds below 50% for the first time all season. Our record was a depressing 53-56. But that wasn’t even the low point. Fast forward to August 11th, right after the club’s 50th anniversary celebration that ended in another embarrassing loss. We watched the Yankees take us down 4-1, and our record sank to 56-64. FanGraphs slashed the playoff odds to a bleak 23.9%. We lost again the next day, too. Seriously, it felt like the season was spiraling into the Puget Sound, and our resolve was melting away faster than an ice cream cone in a heatwave.

Cal Raleigh Bleeds Green and Blue, Too

But then something shifted. Over the next 13 games, this squad found a way to win 8 of them, taking three series in the process. And get this: they did it all with a total run differential of -29. Meanwhile, our division rivals Houston and Texas were stumbling, going 4-7 and 6-7 respectively. And then, our man Cal Raleigh went absolutely nuclear, smashing four home runs in just two nights! How do you not get hyped for that? It totally reminded me of what John, one of the staff, said: “if the Mariners are to make the playoffs, it will only be possible by playing at a caliber befitting of a playoff running club.” We’re starting to see that caliber. He called the teams we’re chasing “donkeys in dumpsters,” and you know what? He’s not wrong. Isabelle, another staffer, compared us to her corgi Cedar, yanking at the leash, demanding to go forward. That’s us, M’s fans, pulling hard towards something special.

With 28 games left, the M’s have given us every reason to believe again. Can this team truly do it? Our hearts have been through the wringer, but the fight is real. Every single game from here on out is a must-watch, a test of our collective resolve. It’s time to show the league what the Emerald City is made of. Let’s go, Seattle!

This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.

Originally reported by Lookout Landing.

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