After two Group of Six teams, Tulane and James Madison, crashed last year’s College Football Playoff, the party is significantly smaller this season: the rules have changed, and only *one* G6 team is guaranteed a spot. This isn’t just a tweak; it’s a massive shift that amps up the pressure on every single G6 program hoping to make national noise. The road to the CFP just became a brutal gauntlet.
The CFP Door Slammed Shut on Everyone But One
So, what happened? The new rules are clear. Power Four conference champions now automatically get in. Add Notre Dame to that list if they finish ranked in the top 12. That leaves precisely one spot for the entire Group of Six. Suddenly, making the CFP isn’t just hard; it’s a winner-take-all brawl for that single, coveted bid. This new landscape makes it way more challenging for multiple G6 teams to crash the bracket like we saw last year. And if that wasn’t enough, the coaching carousel in 2025 was wild. Many G6 programs have new faces leading the charge. Both Tulane and James Madison, last year’s playoff teams, now have new coaches. American Conference heavyweights like South Florida, North Texas, and Memphis also saw significant changes, meaning we’re going to see a lot of uncertainty right out of the gate.
Who’s Got the Inside Track? Boise State Leads the Pack
With one spot up for grabs, who’s got the best shot? The experts have weighed in, and **Boise State** is a massive favorite. John Talty, along with Chip Patterson, Shehan Jeyarajah, David Cobb, and Chris Hummer, all have the Broncos pegged to win the new-look Pac-12 and emerge as the top Group of Six contender. We’ve already seen what Spencer Danielson can do, pulling off a 2024 berth, and this year’s roster looks loaded, especially with quarterback Maddux Madsen. That season opener against Oregon is going to be a gut check, but the games against Fresno State and San Diego State could absolutely define their entire season.
Then there’s Brandon Marcello’s pick for pure chaos: **North Dakota State**. In their first year at the FBS level, the Bison are already making waves. The NCAA changed its two-year probation rule, which means NDSU is bowl eligible in Year 1. Marcello sees them shaking things up big time. While UNLV *should* be the favorite to win the Mountain West, something tells him the Bison’s physicality will be too much. He’s got NDSU going undefeated at home, doing enough on the road, beating UNLV in the conference title game, and snatching that playoff bid. It’s tough to pick G6 teams when Power Four programs are constantly raiding rosters and conference realignment keeps things crazy, but the stage is set.
Who rises to the occasion? Which team can navigate the new rules and the intense competition? It’s going to be a season-long fight for that one golden ticket, and every single game is going to matter. Get ready, because this G6 race is going to be appointment viewing.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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