Myles Garrett, fresh off one of the greatest pass-rushing seasons ever where he set an NFL single-season sack record with a ridiculous 23 sacks, is being massively undersold by ESPN’s statistical model for 2026, projecting him to hit just 10.1 sacks. This isn’t just a slight dip; it means the guy who broke the league record is barely cracking the top five.
ESPN’s Model Throws Garrett Way Down the Sack List
Forget breaking his own record; this model sees Garrett falling way off the pace. The ESPN model, which Seth Walder released, factors in stuff like pass rush win rate, age, win totals, and sack totals from the last two years. And for Garrett, the numbers are brutal. His projected mean sack total is just 10.1, which puts him at fifth overall. Aidan Hutchinson is way ahead at 12.5, Micah Parsons at 11.1, Will Anderson Jr. with 10.5, and Nik Bonitto just edges him out at 10.3. It’s a shocking drop for a player who just dominated the league, especially now that he is with the Los Angeles Rams.
Three Red Flags Holding Back Garrett’s Projection
Walder even admits he’s surprised by Garrett’s low projection, especially after that 23-sack season. But the model points to three specific reasons Garrett’s numbers are getting hit hard. First, the man is 30 years old. Second, the Rams’ blitz rate last season was only 19%, the second-lowest in the entire NFL, which means fewer opportunities for Garrett to feast. And third, Los Angeles is staring down a quarterback slate that tends to take sacks less frequently than average. Walder notes the model isn’t even considering Aaron Donald’s potential return, but he stands by the idea that “there are real variables that are holding back Garrett’s 2026 sack projection.” Other Rams like Byron Young are projected 18th with 7.6 sacks, and Kobie Turner is 45th with 5.8. If these projections seem low overall, it’s because the model factors in potential injuries, otherwise everyone’s forecast would be “much higher.”
Honestly, it’s tough to picture Garrett only bringing in around 10 sacks. That would be his lowest total since 2019, when he still had 10 sacks in just 10 games! He averages 15.9 sacks over a full 17-game season. This is the kind of prediction that lights a fire under a player like Garrett, and you just know he’s going to come out wanting to prove everyone, and every model, wrong.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply