Week 1 of college football for 2026 is officially here, and SportsLine’s proven model just dropped some serious heat with its top prediction: Auburn (-7.5) is set to absolutely smash Baylor. This isn’t just another game, folks, it’s a statement, especially when you consider how utterly dreadful Baylor performed last year against the spread. If you’ve been following the model, you know it’s been on a 32-19 run for top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season, and it’s been upgraded for 2026 to factor in the wild transfer portal. Yeah, this thing is legit.
Auburn’s New Quarterback Is an Absolute Game-Changer
Let’s talk about why this Auburn pick feels so right. Baylor went a miserable 2-10 against the spread last year, literally the worst performance for any team out there. Think about that for a second! To make matters worse, one of those defeats came to Auburn in Week 1, and that was at home. Now, Baylor has to travel, and guess what? They’ve lost their last three road games with an average margin of defeat of 17 points. It’s not looking good for them. But the biggest reason Auburn is poised to dominate? Their new quarterback, Byrum Brown. This dude is a certified playmaker. Last year at USF, he was the only quarterback in the entire nation to rack up 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Let that sink in. The model projects Brown to rush for more yards than Baylor’s entire team in this game, plus throw for nearly 250 yards. Auburn isn’t just winning, they’re covering well over 60% of the time, according to the simulation. This team is better than last year’s squad, all thanks to that addition under center.
Don’t Sleep On These Other Week 1 Blockbusters
While Auburn vs. Baylor is the top dog for the model’s picks, there are 90 games involving FBS teams on the main course of the Week 1 schedule, and some other matchups are grabbing serious attention. Lane Kiffin makes his LSU debut against Clemson on Saturday, with his Tigers currently sitting as 10.5-point favorites. Then on Sunday, we get the only ranked contest of the weekend: No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 24 Louisville (+7). That’s Kiffin’s former squad going toe-to-toe! We’ve also got UCLA vs. Cal (+1.5), which used to be a heated Pac-12 rivalry. And for those feeling bold, No. 1 Ohio State is a whopping -50.5 favorite as they host Ball State to kick off their campaign. Another prediction from the model that you shouldn’t ignore is Cincinnati (-7.5), though the full details weren’t spilled just yet.
So, get ready for an insane Week 1 slate. Whether you’re watching Kiffin’s LSU debut or seeing if Auburn’s new QB lives up to the hype, college football is officially back, and these picks are ready to roll. You won’t want to miss a single snap!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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