Denver’s talking heads are totally split on what Bo Nix is gonna do this season, with most predicting he’ll barely clear the 4,000 passing yard mark, if he even gets there. He already slung it for 3,775 yards as a rookie, and then just under 4,000 last year. Now, for year three, some folks are betting on a much bigger jump to 4,500 yards or more, but the majority are playing it safe. Honestly, I get it, but it’s a wild spread for a guy who’s supposed to be hitting his stride.
The QB Comparison That Will Make You Scratch Your Head
Remember when we heard NFL execs and coaches put Nix’s talent in the bottom half of the league? Yeah, that was a head-scratcher, especially since he actually outperformed guys like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert last year. So, for kicks, let’s look at how those big-name QBs did in their first three seasons. Allen went 2,074 yards in 2018, then 3,089 in 2019, before exploding for 4,544 in 2020. Mahomes’ first full year in 2018 was a monster at 5,097, followed by 4,031 in 2019, and 4,740 in 2020. Herbert? He dropped 4,336 in 2020, then 5,014 in 2021, and 4,739 in 2022. It’s crazy to think Allen was almost labeled a bust before that third-year breakout.
Why Passing Yards Don’t Always Tell the Story
Here’s the kicker: those passing yard numbers don’t mean everything. Allen actually had his third-lowest passing yard total recently, just above his first two seasons, after losing some top receiving weapons. Mahomes’ last two seasons were both under 4,000 yards, also a casualty of losing receivers, but it clearly hasn’t slowed down the Chiefs. Herbert has seen a drop-off from his peak years in two and three, but his lower passing yard seasons were actually when the Chargers had their best win-loss records in ages. And Allen and Mahomes? They’ve been leading their teams to the playoffs regardless of some arbitrary passing milestone. It just shows that more isn’t always better.
I’m all for an explosive passing game, don’t get me wrong. But for Denver, I’m secretly hoping Nix’s passing yards stay under 4,000 this season if it means the run game is firing on all cylinders. In the past five seasons, the Broncos have hovered just under 2,000 rushing yards, while the league’s top rushing teams were closer to 3,000. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey are heading into camp as their top two backs, so maybe this is the year they crank it up. A strong run game could actually take some pressure off Nix and make their offense way more dangerous. Will we see Nix hit that 4,000-yard mark or will a revitalized run game take center stage? We’ll find out when the season kicks off.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
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