Alabama is kicking off the season ranked outside the AP Top 10 for the first time since 2008. Let that sink in for a second, because this is a team that has defined dominance for nearly two decades, a program synonymous with championship runs and absolute top tier talent. To see them this low in the preseason poll? It’s wild.
The Tide’s New Era, Same High Stakes
You have to go all the way back to Nick Saban’s second season in Tuscaloosa in 2008 to find Alabama outside that preseason Top 10. That year, they blew past expectations, finishing 12-2 after dropping the Sugar Bowl to undefeated Utah. Time truly flies, right? Fast forward to last year, and while they finished 11-4, the memory that sticks is that brutal 38-3 dismantling they took from eventual champion Indiana. Ouch. Former bookmaker Ed Salmons didn’t mince words from Vegas. “Alabama could not run the ball last season,” Salmons told me. “That was never an issue at the height of their powers under Nick Saban. I like Kalen DeBoer and there’s always going to be talent there, but they must get back to running the ball.” That’s the blueprint, plain and simple.
Breaking Down Bama With The Sharps
Most of the “wise guys” I talk to, the ones who really know how to make power ratings, are placing Bama just outside the top 10, but they see plenty of room for growth. Handicappers like Motoi Pearson and Brad Powers have the Tide at 11th and 13th respectively. But one former bookmaker, who’s now a full-time bettor, is even higher on them, admitting, “I have Alabama eighth.” His full Top 8? Ohio State at one, Notre Dame and Oregon tied at two, Texas at four, Georgia and Indiana tied at five, Miami at seven, and then Alabama at eight. Why the optimism? He pointed to their huge haul in the transfer portal, specifically “five transfers in the offensive line room.” DeBoer clearly went after their weaknesses. Plus, that young quarterback is a five-star recruit. This guy believes in pedigree and loves the coaching staff, even admitting he’s “probably a little high.” Interesting market action too, with the “market took 28.5 and 28 with East Carolina over the last few days.”
Beyond Bama: Week One’s Wildest Wagers
But there’s more brewing in the betting world. That same former bookmaker has a “big disagreement” on Houston versus Oregon State. He thinks “the market is almost a touchdown light,” making Houston -27. “Maybe I’m missing something,” he said, but that’s a serious lean. And then there’s Florida State +3 against SMU. For him, “There’s only one way to bet that game. It’s Florida State or pass.” His preseason number for that game was a pick ’em, arguing you “can’t over adjust to one result” and that “this number shouldn’t be 3.” He knows the books will “write all SMU tickets,” though, so he gets why the line is where it is. Joey Feazel, head of football for Caesars Sportsbook, is expecting an “avalanche of tickets on Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs” for Monday night’s standalone game. Feazel added that FSU “left a lot to be desired against New Mexico State” and has “struggled for a couple years now.” The line’s holding at three, but it was 1.5 and two before Week 0. This FSU-SMU game is going to be “one of our biggest handled college games of the year” because it’s the only game Monday night, and the NFL isn’t even back yet.
This opening week is going to be absolutely wild. We’re watching Kalen DeBoer’s revamped Alabama try to prove doubters wrong right out of the gate. Keep your eyes on that Florida State versus SMU game too, because it’s going to be a massive draw with all eyes on Monday night football. Can FSU shake off those early season struggles or will Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs dominate the ticket counters? This season is just getting started, and there are so many storylines already bubbling up.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
Leave a Reply