ESPN’s Bill Connelly just dropped a bomb on the Week 1 showdown between FSU and No. 19 SMU, predicting a tight 27-25 victory for the Mustangs. If that score holds, it would mean FSU covers the spread, but it’s still a loss at home in Doak Campbell Stadium on Monday night, and that’s a tough pill to swallow for the Seminoles faithful.
SMU’s Rise Against FSU’s Struggles: What’s the Real Story?
Let’s be real, this matchup carries some serious baggage. Remember 2024? SMU rolled FSU, 42-16, down in Dallas. Since that beatdown, things haven’t exactly been sunshine and rainbows for the Seminoles. They limped to a 2-10 finish that year, then went 5-7 last season. Not exactly the trajectory you want to see. On the flip side, SMU has been on an absolute tear since joining the ACC. They went 11-3 in 2024, snagging their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance. They took a small step back last year with a 9-4 record, but with quarterback Kevin Jennings back leading the offense, they are clearly chasing another playoff run. This game is shaping up to be one of FSU’s toughest fights of the season, no doubt about it.
The SP+ Numbers Don’t Lie: This Is How Tight It’s Gonna Be
Connelly’s SP+ metrics are giving SMU a 54% chance to win this thing. That’s not exactly a blowout prediction, but it shows where the edge is. After their 34-17 Week 0 win against New Mexico State, FSU is sitting at No. 37 in the SP+ rankings with an overall rating of 60.0. Their offense is at 55.3, but the defense is lagging with a -5.0 rating. SMU, though? They’re ranked No. 26 overall, boasting a 64.2 rating, with a strong 58.6 on offense and a -6.0 on defense. These numbers scream “battle.” The Mustangs have the statistical advantage, but FSU’s gotta be hungry after that Week 0 win, right?
So, what’s next for FSU? They’ve got Alabama coming to town on September 19, plus Clemson and Florida later in the schedule. This Monday night game against SMU, airing at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN with Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, and Taylor McGregor on the call, is absolutely crucial. A win here would be a massive statement, giving them some much needed momentum before they hit the real gauntlet of their schedule. Can they flip the script from 2024, or will SMU prove the metrics right? This is going to be good!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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