Ryan Blaney might be sitting pretty as the top favorite for Sunday’s 2026 Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro, but a proven computer model is saying that’s a *hard pass* for anyone making bets. This thing is the penultimate race of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge, and the stakes are real.
The Favorite Everyone’s Fading
So, Blaney is at +480, leading the odds board, and he just crushed it in Atlanta last week, even getting the pole because weather trashed qualifying. Sounds like a lock, right? *Wrong*. Mike McClure, this legendary DFS player who has bagged over $2 million, runs a prediction model that simmers every single lap 10,000 times. And this beast of a model has called *30 winners* since 2021, even nailing Denny Hamlin’s back-to-back wins last month. What does it say about Blaney? Forget victory lane. Simulations have him barely even cracking the top 5! Blaney’s had some success on short tracks, sure, but he hasn’t actually *won* on one in eight straight starts. Plus, his last trip to North Wilkesboro for the 2025 All-Star Race was a disaster, finishing 16th out of 23 drivers. Given those short odds, you’re better off avoiding him entirely.
Ty Gibbs Is Your Dark Horse, Bet On It
Here’s where it gets interesting, because the model is *super* high on Ty Gibbs at +1800. McClure’s model projects a strong run toward the title for Gibbs, and you gotta look at his track record at North Wilkesboro. He’s got three Cup Series starts there through the All-Star Race, snagged the pole at the All-Star Open twice, winning that race once and even finishing runner-up the other time. And get this: his team, Joe Gibbs Racing, won the last event at North Wilkesboro! With those kinds of numbers and the model backing him, Gibbs is screaming “value pick.”
North Wilkesboro’s Big Return
This Sunday marks the Cup Series’ first points race at North Wilkesboro Speedway in three decades, kicking off at 7 p.m. ET. Yeah, it hosted All-Star races from 2023-25, with Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, and Christopher Bell grabbing checkered flags. But this is a points race now, meaning every position counts for the In-Season Challenge. Chase Elliott is your +150 favorite for that overall challenge, but he’s +1400 to win on Sunday. Keep an eye on Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, both at +500, and Kyle Larson at +900, still hunting for his first win in over a year. Will McClure’s model keep its hot streak alive? Sunday is going to be wild, and we’ll see if the favorites truly crumble under the pressure.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
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