The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off in just six days, and if you haven’t finalized your fantasy football draft strategy, you absolutely need to pay attention. The SportsLine computer model, a system with a seriously impressive track record, has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and just dropped its latest list of fantasy football busts and riskiest picks. Avoiding these landmines is how you win your league, especially after seeing what happened to fantasy lineups last season when players like Lamar Jackson, Ashton Jeanty, Justin Jefferson, and Mark Andrews didn’t deliver.
The Model That Knew McLaurin Was Trouble
This isn’t some fly-by-night algorithm, either. This model has proven itself time and again. Remember just last year, it accurately predicted that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would crater, falling way short of his top-50 ADP? People were high on him, but the computer knew better. McLaurin had piled up nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches the season before, but in 2025, he posted career lows with just 582 receiving yards and a meager 3 receiving touchdowns. Injuries played a part, sure, but his per-game averages were down across the board. Anyone who listened and faded him in their drafts dodged a major headache! This same model also nailed A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, accurately predicted Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and called C.J. Stroud’s step back in 2024. Plus, it tagged past sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. When this thing talks, you listen.
Your Draft Day Warning: David Montgomery Is a Trap
So, who is this super-smart computer model flagging as a top 2026 fantasy football bust? Get ready for this: Houston Texans running back David Montgomery. The 29-year-old was a high-volume touchdown scorer when he was in Detroit, but now he’s heading into a less explosive offense in Houston. Some fantasy players are getting bullish on his upside, figuring he won’t be sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs anymore. But the model says hold up! He’s still expected to split snaps with Woody Marks, who racked up over 900 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. Montgomery’s current ADP has him going off the board around pick No. 48. But SportsLine’s model? It’s got him in the same tier as much later-round picks like Jaylen Warren, Jadarian Price, and even a 10th-rounder like Kenneth Gainwell. That’s a huge red flag on a guy going in the fourth or fifth round.
The NFL regular season officially kicks off in less than a week. Every draft pick counts, and avoiding these early busts is how you build a championship roster. Make sure you’re ready to make those critical decisions and dominate your league.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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