That gut-punch loss to the Athletics over the weekend? Yeah, it pretty much ripped any realistic hope of a dramatic Mariners playoff push right out of our hands. We dropped three of four to Oakland, and it felt like a dagger. Technically, our playoff odds are still breathing at 6.6%, but we’d have to win roughly 80% of our remaining 18 games just to get to .500. Even that probably wouldn’t be enough to catch the Astros in the division. But hey, it’s not over until it’s over, right? A glimmer, a tiny sliver of a chance is still there, even after that absolutely terrible, horrible, no good, very bad series against the A’s.
The Fight for Every Inch in Arlington
Now, we’re staring down a crucial three-game set against the Texas Rangers, starting Tuesday, September 8, at 6:40 pm. Game one sees our RHP Bryce Miller on the mound, facing off against Rangers LHP Cody Bradford. FanGraphs gives us a 57.5% win probability there. Then on Wednesday, September 9, it’s LHP Kade Anderson going against RHP Cal Quantrill at 1:10 pm, with our win chance bumped up to 61.9%. Finally, for the series finale on Thursday, September 10, RHP Logan Gilbert takes on RHP Kumar Rocker at 1:10 pm, and we’re looking at a 61.5% chance to win. We need every single one of those wins, Emerald City.
This series isn’t just big for us. The Rangers are technically still alive in both the AL West and the AL Wild Card races, sitting at 26.6% playoff odds. But let’s be real: they haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire, going four games under .500 since the All-Star break and making no forward progress since August. Their schedule is brutal, too. These three games against us, plus a three-game set against the Blue Jays, are their only remaining games against direct playoff opponents. They gotta win big and get a ton of help. They’ve got the Wild Card tiebreaker over Cleveland and Toronto, which is something, but they lost their season series to Houston.
Mariners Bullpen Can Be the Difference
When you dig into the stats, the Rangers hold some edges. Their batting (104 wRC+, 4th in AL) is better than ours (100 wRC+, 9th in AL), their fielding (-2 FRV, 8th) beats our abysmal -44 (15th), and their starting pitching (96 FIP-, 5th) is ahead of ours (99 FIP-, 8th). Where we *can* find an advantage? Our bullpen. We’re at 102 FIP- (8th), while theirs is at 106 FIP- (14th). That could be the key if our starters can keep us in it.
The Rangers also have some hot bats. Corey Seager, back from the IL on July 31, has been on fire with a 139 wRC+ and five homers since returning from his back injury. Ezequiel Duran stepped up huge at shortstop during Seager’s absence and has played his way into an everyday role with Josh Jung injured. Duran’s been their best player since the All-Star break, also rocking a 139 wRC+. We’ve got to shut those guys down.
These three games against the Rangers aren’t just another series, folks. They are the entire season for us. Our backs are against the wall, but Bryce Miller gets the ball first tonight. Let’s show Texas what Seattle fights for!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Lookout Landing.
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