ESPN’s Bill Barnwell just dropped a bombshell that’s gotta have Chicago fans clenching up: he’s predicting the Bears are absolutely going to miss the playoffs in 2026. And get this: his whole argument leans on NFL history itself, which he says is lining up against them. For a team trying for a second straight NFC North title, with plenty of optimism around, that prediction stings. Big time.
That 2025 Luck? History Says It’s Over.
Barnwell didn’t pull punches, and honestly, the man’s got a point. He laid out exactly how the Bears’ “big 2025 season” relied on pure grit, a ton of fourth-quarter heroics, and, let’s be real, a whole lot of luck. Their offense lived on late-game success, defense on takeaways, and opponents had perfectly timed meltdowns in crucial moments. Barnwell’s exact words hit hard: “We saw a team that relied almost entirely on fourth-quarter success on offense, takeaways on defense, and a series of perfectly timed meltdowns by its opposition to win a bunch of close games.” He didn’t stop there, adding that history tells us straight up that kind of approach is “just not a sustainable way to win games year after year.” When you factor in a league-high turnover count from last year, those “miraculous moments” start looking less like genius coaching and more like a coin flip that just kept landing your way. The signs of regression? Oh man, they’re not just obvious, they’re screaming.
Injuries, Unknowns, and a Defense That’s Just… Worse.
It’s not just about historical trends, either; there are some super real, in-the-moment worries that are hitting this squad hard. First off, Rome Odunze, who should be lighting it up, is reportedly “a bit banged up.” Not what you want to hear. Then there’s the offensive line, which Barnwell calls “a bit of an unknown.” In football speak, that’s usually code for “not sure they can protect anyone.” But the biggest flashing red light? That defense. It’s looking “a lot worse” than it did last season. They’re clearly dealing with some serious injuries and definitely felt the hit from losing key players over the offseason. It’s not a stretch to figure that their defensive luck, which was a huge factor in those tight 2025 victories, might just be running on empty. If that defensive unit can’t step up, it’s going to put an absolutely brutal amount of strain on the offense to somehow carry the entire team.
Individual Spark, Team Troubles?
Look, there’s always a sliver of a chance. Maybe the Bears come out firing, playing great, and the defense is somehow better than expected. But Barnwell’s gut call, backed by history, points to regression, and that means missing the playoffs. Still, for individual players, this season could be a blast. Williams is “in store for another breakout season,” and his pass catchers , Luther Burden, Odunze, Colston Loveland, Ben Johnson , could definitely put together incredible years. A fun ride for the skill guys? Absolutely. But for the team, with Barnwell’s prediction out there? Playoffs look like a distant dream, not a guarantee.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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