The NFL season just kicked off, and while every team hasn’t even played their first game yet, you know the MVP chatter is already hitting full blast. Forget the noise about who “might” have a great year; history tells us exactly what kind of player takes home the league’s top individual honor, and it’s pointing to one guy right now.
It’s a Quarterback’s World, We’re Just Living In It
Let’s be real, the MVP award has been a QB show for almost two decades. Since 2008, 17 of the last 18 winners have been quarterbacks. Yeah, Adrian Peterson made some noise in 2011, nearly breaking Walter Payton’s rushing record, but he was the exception that proves the rule. Every year, some running back gets hot mid-season, everyone starts asking if this is *the* year a non-QB breaks through again, and the answer is almost always no. You want to bet on MVP? Stick to the signal-callers.
But it’s not just about being a quarterback. This award goes to a quarterback on a *dominant* team. We’re talking top-tier, playoff-bound, first-round bye teams. Out of those 17 QB MVPs, a whopping 15 of them played on a squad that locked up a first-round bye. The only outliers, Peyton Manning in 2008 and Matthew Stafford in 2025, still led teams that went 12-4 and 12-5 respectively. You aren’t winning MVP on a 9-8 team, plain and simple. When they hand out that trophy in February, it’s going to a QB from a team with an outstanding record.
Mahomes At 15-1? You Gotta Be Kidding Me.
This brings us to Patrick Mahomes, sitting there at 15-1 odds on FanDuel. Seriously? Yeah, there are questions. He’s coming off an ACL tear he suffered at the end of last season. His team missed the playoffs in 2025 for the first time in his career, limping to a 6-11 record. There’s chatter about the offensive line and his receiving weapons. But come on, this is Mahomes we’re talking about!
Just two years ago, the dude led his team to a ridiculous 15-2 record and was one win away from a *third consecutive Super Bowl title*, which would have been his fourth in six years. He’s been to five Super Bowls, and let’s not forget those two AFC title games he lost at home in overtime. Last year’s 6-11 record? A huge chunk of that was being just 1-9 in one-score games. That’s some bad luck right there, and you know he’s gonna bounce back. I expect him and his team to clean up those close games and be right back at the top of the AFC standings. Plus, he hasn’t won MVP since 2022, so no voter fatigue there. And a comeback narrative after an ACL injury? That’s just icing on the MVP cake.
So yeah, the smart money is on Patrick Mahomes at +1500 for the MVP. It’s too tempting to pass up. Now, speaking of early season drama, our own Sam Darnold had to exit the Seahawks’ opener against the Patriots with a hip injury. We’re all waiting on updates on that one, hoping it’s nothing too serious for our guy. That same game saw Patriots WR A.J. Brown reportedly pick up a high-ankle sprain too. Get ready, Emerald City, this NFL season is just getting started!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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