The Chicago Bears shocked everyone last season, flipping a 5-12 record into an 11-6 finish, winning the NFC North before getting knocked out by the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round. That’s a massive turnaround, no doubt. But the big question looming over the Windy City right now is: were the Bears actually for real last year, or was it a one-off fluke?
Why the Bears’ 11-6 Record Might Be a Total Head-Scratcher
Listen, an 11-win season sounds great on paper, but Brandon Warne laid out some seriously wild numbers. The 2025 Bears went 11-6 with a plus-26 point differential. That’s barely positive, man! By expected wins and losses, that kind of performance usually screams “9-8 team.” Warne is calling out some serious 2023 Vikings vibes here, a team that famously went 13-4 with a *negative* point differential. That just ain’t sustainable.
Think about this: only eight other teams have won 11 or more games with a point differential worse than the Bears’ plus-26 since 2003. We’re talking about the 2012 Colts (plus-30), 2020 Browns (minus-11), 2022 Vikings (minus-3), 2004 Falcons (plus-3), 2023 Eagles (plus-5), 2019 Seahawks (plus-7), 2014 Cardinals (plus-11), and 2003 Panthers (plus-21). And here’s the kicker: four of those teams absolutely fell off a cliff the very next season, finishing .500 or worse! We’re talking about the 2004 Panthers, 2005 Falcons, 2021 Browns, and our own division rivals, the 2023 Vikings. Given the Bears are staring down a tough NFC North slate AND a first-place schedule, Warne sees them landing squarely in that “decline” group, probably looking more like a 9-8 squad this time around.
Caleb Williams Holds the Key (Or the Disaster)
Christopher Gates offers a slightly different take, arguing the Bears’ 2025 season wasn’t quite the same as the 2022 Vikings’ “get the crap beaten out of them” losses. Gates points out the Bears only got truly thumped once last season, and that was against the Lions in Week 2, right after a brutal Week 1 Monday night loss to the Vikings. So, maybe their losses weren’t as devastating as the 2022 Vikings’ bunch.
But here’s the cold hard truth: if Caleb Williams goes down for the Bears this year, just like Kirk Cousins did for the Vikings in 2023, then literally all bets are off. That’s the kind of blow that completely derails a season, especially for a team that might already be playing above its head based on those expected win numbers. The entire division knows it, too.
So what’s next? The Bears kick off their 2026 season looking to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. But with that brutal schedule and the specter of their flimsy 2025 point differential, all eyes will be on how Williams performs and if they can overcome what many are seeing as an inevitable regression. The NFC North is going to be a battle, and the Bears have a massive challenge ahead just to stay in the conversation.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Daily Norseman.
Leave a Reply