An insider with the Chicago Bears is totally brushing off this whole “regression” talk after their killer 2025 season. This source told The Athletic’s Jonathan Jones that the narrative is “lazy” and they’re just gonna “use it for fuel” as they kick off the 2026 season.
“Lazy” Talk? Coach Johnson Agrees
“I think it’s lazy,” the Bears source said to Jones. They’re seeing interceptions and saying “You can’t do that again,” or fourth-quarter comebacks and saying “They can’t come back,” but ignoring all the room for improvement in between. It sounds like this “regression” talk has been buzzing in the Bears’ building for a while. Head coach Ben Johnson even brought it up way back in training camp on July 31. He straight-up said, “Well, we’re the No. 1 regression candidate so … I think we’ve got plenty of motivation ourselves.” Johnson isn’t too worried about quarterback Caleb Williams handling the attention either, since he’s used to it. But is it just “fuel,” or is there some real fire behind these stats?
The Numbers Are Getting Hard to Ignore
Look, it’s tough to see how the Bears racked up 11 wins last season and not question if it’s sustainable. Seven of those 11 victories were in one-score games, which is wild. And get this: six of those were when they scored inside the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime. That’s some serious nail-biting stuff. Their defense was ranked 19th in EPA per play, which doesn’t exactly scream dominance, does it? That number got propped up big time by them forcing an NFL-high 23 interceptions. They also led the entire league with a plus-22 turnover differential. According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, out of 21 teams since 1990 with a turnover margin of at least plus-20 (excluding the 2025 Bears), 20 of them won fewer games the next year, and their average turnover margin dropped to just plus-three. That combo of turnover luck and late-game heroics? It’s basically the perfect recipe for a negative year-over-year regression.
Can Caleb Williams and a Rookie Defense Save Them?
So, how do they fight this expected regression? On defense, they didn’t exactly go wild in the offseason. Coby Bryant, who was supposed to be a big free-agent pickup, is gonna miss most of the season after knee surgery. Rookie safety Dillon Thieneman, the No. 25 overall pick, is arguably their biggest defensive addition. That’s a lot to put on a rookie. Offensively, Caleb Williams taking another step forward is massive. His down-to-down consistency, especially, needs to be a point of emphasis. His 58.1 completion percentage in 2025 ranked 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. Yikes. Plus, they’re playing in what’s arguably the deepest division in the NFL, with the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings all finishing over .500 last season. That’s a brutal gauntlet.
The Bears are set to kick off their season opener on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. It’s their chance to prove all these doubters and skeptics wrong. They’ve got the “fuel,” but do they have the substance to avoid the regression everyone’s talking about? We’re about to find out.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Bleacher Report.
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