August 13 is officially when the NFL preseason kicks off, but for those of us tracking the league closely, the real action is happening right now, before training camp noise hits. The new official league year has begun, the schedule is out, the draft is done, and free agency has settled. Reporters are about to flood us with buzz on player form, contract sagas, and lingering injuries, driving betting markets wild. My play? Get to the window early and snag some regular season win total bets before that news frenzy starts.
Bears Facing a Brutal Schedule and a Turnover Cliff
My first full fade is the Chicago Bears under 9.5 wins at -125. Listen, this team is staring down a brutally difficult schedule. After snagging the NFC North last year, they’re now saddled with a first-place schedule of opponents, all while playing in what might be the league’s toughest division. When you adjust strength of schedule to projected win totals for this coming season, the Bears have the sixth-toughest schedule in the entire NFL. That’s a complete 180 from last year when they had one of the easiest preseason projected schedules, which was a huge reason they overachieved.
But wait, there’s more. Chicago’s defense thrived last season thanks to a ton of forced turnovers. They led the NFL with 33 turnovers forced and boasted the largest net turnover differential at a staggering +22. Analytically, turnovers are one of the least “sticky” stats year over year, meaning there’s a huge luck factor involved. The NFL is called a “game of inches” for a reason, and the Bears dominating possessions again is just begging for regression to the mean. It’s coming.
Age Ain’t Nothing But A Number (Unless It’s Chicago’s Roster)
Here’s another kicker for the Bears’ under: while their focal skill position players like Caleb Williams, Colston Loveland, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze are young and exciting, the average age of the team actually ranks 10th oldest in the league heading into this season. People see those young stars and think this is a team of fresh faces, but the “glue guys” holding it all together are rather old. This smells a lot like last year’s Washington Commanders, who had a young QB in Jayden Daniels, but a roster full of aging veterans who got hurt and significantly regressed. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Broncos: Coaching and Depth Signal an Over
On the flip side, I’m liking the Denver Broncos over 9.5 wins at -125. Now, strength of schedule is usually the biggest factor for early NFL win totals, and the Broncos’ schedule is the 11th-easiest. It’s close to league average, nothing wild to read into there. The main reason I’m bullish on Denver is their elite coaching and the sheer depth across their roster. We already saw how much the Broncos missed Bo Nix in the [the source article cuts off here].
As training camps are about to open and the league year barrels forward, keep an eye on how these betting lines shift. The market is about to price in every whisper and every highlight. The clock is ticking to get in early on these numbers before the buzz takes over.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
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