Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the absolute biggest question mark at first base for 2027 fantasy drafts, hands down. His immense upside is still there, no doubt, but the 2026 season threw up some seriously wild numbers that make him a massive risk heading into next year.
First Base Is Absolutely Stacked Right Now
Listen, ranking first basemen used to be a headache because there weren’t enough *good* options. But man, has that flipped in the last few seasons. For 2024, we saw just five guys hit 80 RBI and 80 runs while playing at least 10 games at first base. That number jumped to seven in 2025. And this season, with still 12 days left, we’ve already got nine! Same story with homers: only four 30-homer first basemen in 2024. That climbed to seven in 2025, and we’re sitting at nine so far in 2026. And OPS? Seventeen first basemen clocked an .800 OPS or better this year while qualifying for the batting title, compared to 13 in 2025 and only four in 2024.
However you slice it, first base is deeper, stronger, and more talented than it’s been in at least a few years. This cranks up the stakes for 2027 drafts big time. Betting a top-50 pick that Guerrero Jr. will dominate next season? That could absolutely blow up in your face with so many other legitimate alternatives on the board.
Vladdy Jr.’s Numbers Just Don’t Make Sense
The weirdest part about Guerrero’s 2026? He still looks like the same hitter. You watch him, and his batting stance, his swing, that signature bat speed, it all seems identical to previous years. It’s not like he went out and dramatically changed his setup. But for some reason, he isn’t hitting the ball as hard as you’d expect from Vladdy. Now, a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and a 44.5% hard-hit rate aren’t *bad* numbers. They’re actually pretty solid in a vacuum! But they absolutely do not explain why he’s sitting bottom-10 in all of baseball for Isolated Slugging percentage. He’s nestled between guys like Xavier Edwards, who’s got an 86.7 mph average exit velocity, and Xander Bogaerts at 89.3 mph. It’s truly baffling to figure out how Vladdy ended up in this spot. Could it be that maybe, just maybe, he’s been a bit overrated for fantasy all along? That’s the question we’re all asking.
With so many “one-year wonders” popping off at first base this season, the risk is real across the board. Many of these breakouts are legitimate, sure, but a few will crash back to Earth. If you’re dropping a big pick on one of those breakouts, especially someone like Guerrero Jr. with these kind of numbers, you absolutely gotta know the gamble you’re taking. First base is loaded with options, but figuring out who to draft for 2027 is still gonna be a brutal challenge. Good luck out there!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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