The last time the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills faced off, back in Week 15 of 2024, they combined for a staggering 90 points. Now, these two high-powered conference contenders are set to open the new Highmark Stadium Thursday night, both coming off crazy Week 1 barnburners, and the oddsmakers aren’t holding back: the total for this game has climbed to a wild 54.5 points, the highest for any two teams playing on short rest since 2022. If you’re a Lions fan, you’ve gotta be pumped for the fireworks, but there’s a huge problem.
Detroit’s O-Line Nightmare and Josh Allen’s Firepower
Here’s the gut-punch for Detroit: they’re going into this primetime heavyweight fight without three starting offensive linemen. That’s right, Blake Miller, Cade Mays, and Christian Mahogany are all out. How are you supposed to keep pace with a “fire-breathing beast” like Josh Allen when your offensive line is decimated? The Bills just dropped 36 points on the Texans in Week 1, while the Lions needed overtime to reach 31 against the Saints. For Detroit to have any shot, they’ll need to run the ball like they did in Week 1, punching out 165 yards on 33 carries against the Saints, and play some seriously consistent complementary football. It’s a massive ask with that many crucial starters missing up front.
Buffalo’s Ground Game: A Downhill Freight Train
Last season, Buffalo’s rushing offense was an absolute monster, leading the entire NFL. We’re talking 547 rushing attempts, a league-best 2,714 rushing yards, 30 rushing touchdowns, and a 0.105 EPA per rush. They were second in the league with a 47.3% rushing success rate. This was a ground attack, orchestrated by then-offensive coordinator and now head coach Joe Brady, that even saw James Cook snag second-team All-Pro honors. The Bills just relied on their “horses up front” and pure physicality, using inside zone and man/duo concepts as their bread-and-butter. Last season, they had a 26.5% inside zone run rate (sixth in the league) and a 19.0% man/duo rate (25th), averaging an incredible 4.6 yards per rush on inside zone (tied for fourth) and 5.3 yards per rush on man/duo (second). That’s just pure dominance.
Can Detroit Stop the Run Where Houston Couldn’t?
Even in Week 1 against the Texans, Buffalo’s run game was prevalent, posting a 42.9% inside zone rate (third) and a 14.3% man/duo rate (17th). But here’s the thing: they weren’t nearly as successful with those physical, vertical-displacement runs that worked so well for them last season, only generating a 33.3% success rate (23rd) on those plays. The Texans couldn’t fully capitalize on taking away the run, but it’s still absolutely critical for the Lions to shut it down. Considering Detroit is a “less dominant pass-coverage unit than Houston,” they absolutely have to stop the run if they want any prayer of keeping Josh Allen from completely owning them.
This Thursday night game is going to be an insane shootout, no doubt. The question is whether Detroit, hobbled on their O-line, can somehow mitigate what Buffalo does best offensively and find a way to score enough to keep pace. It’s gonna be a high-stakes battle, and every snap matters for the Lions trying to keep this Week 2 opener from spiraling.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Pride of Detroit.
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