After the Bears and Panthers lit up the scoreboard for a combined 96 points last Sunday, you know everyone’s piling on the “Over” for Bears-Vikings. I saw a post from BetMGM’s John Ewing Friday morning, and 87% of bettors are hammering that “Over” bet. Eighty-seven percent! With that kind of herd mentality, every bone in my body screams “Under.” My record for 2026 sits at 3-5-1, down 2.5 units, but I’m telling you, these wagers get vetted through multiple handicappers and oddsmakers who actually know their stuff. I’m only putting my own money on the lines I love most.
College Football Quarterback Mayhem and Line Swings
Man, college football is a hot mess with these QB situations, and it’s swinging lines all over the place. Take the Ohio situation we talked about earlier this week. I’m hearing QB1 Nick Poulos, listed as questionable, is absolutely not playing. On top of that, QB Matt Vezza is banged up too. This line got smashed, moving from South Alabama -4.5 to -7 on Tuesday. Sure, some of that +7 got knocked back, but I can see Poulos getting ruled out officially tomorrow, pushing that line right back to -7 or even higher. If you can find a 6.5, hit it hard. The Red Raiders team feels panicky. Their defense isn’t anywhere near as strong as last season, and now head coach Joey McGuire is tinkering with Thomas Castellanos more and more at quarterback. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in starter Will Hammond, does it?
And speaking of sharp moves, former bookmaker Ed Salmons told me he jumped on Houston +8.5 on the open, and there’s been plenty of sharp support for the Cougars all week. Then you’ve got the LSU-Ole Miss game, a whole charade with LSU’s injury report. They surprisingly listed starting quarterback Sam Leavitt as “doubtful” Wednesday night, and boom, Ole Miss instantly moved from +3 to as low as +1. Then, bam, it got shoved right back to 3. Now Leavitt is “questionable,” but everyone still expects him to play. I’m still loving this Ole Miss offense catching points, and I think that Rebels defense is good enough to slow LSU down. And honestly, I wouldn’t rule out Lane Kiffin going for two late to win the game. You know he’s got that in him!
NFL Grinders and Game-Changers
Now to the NFL. Yeah, I know, the Titans stink. But that Philadelphia offense left a lot to be desired last Sunday afternoon, only managing ten first downs against Washington. Ten! This game has all the ingredients for an absolute rock fight, and I think Robert Salah can scheme up a solid plan to negate what Jalen Hurts does well. You might hate my guts if Philly goes up 14-0 in the first quarter, but I’m plugging my nose and taking the seven points here.
And what was the water cooler conversation this past week? The Chiefs are playoff bound, and the Colts are missing out. Overreact much? Patrick Mahomes looked solid in his first game back from that torn ACL and LCL, sure, but here’s the kicker: 168 of his 184 passing yards came after the catch. That’s wild, right? Meanwhile, the Colts got blasted. This league is wild, and those water cooler takes sometimes miss the real story.
Look, I’m never going to hit you with a million picks or five-team parlays here. These are the wagers I’m most confident in, the ones I’m betting with my own cash. So let’s lock ’em in and cheer ’em on. Let’s go to work.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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