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Patrick Mahomes’ Career-Low Off-Target Rate and The AFC Should Be Terrified

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Kansas City Chiefs logo on gradient background — Created by the Sports On Tap desk | Source : Sports On Tap (team logos property of their respective owners)

Patrick Mahomes is absolutely back as a top-10 fantasy football option, ranking as QB3 in CBS leagues with an insane average of 30.3 Fantasy points per game after just two weeks. Seriously, if you had this guy benched, it might be time to pull him off the pine. He’s been electrifying, but the way he’s getting it done this season is definitely not what we’re used to seeing.

The Tale of Two Weeks, And How He’s Cooking Now

Talk about two completely different games to kick things off! In Week 1 against the Broncos, Mahomes threw for less than 200 yards. Normally, that’d have us sweating, right? But he still found a way to punch in a rushing touchdown and tossed two more through the air. Classic Mahomes making something out of nothing. Then Week 2 happened. This dude completely dominated a bad Colts defense, dropping 381 passing yards and three touchdowns. He was slinging those classic Mahomes throws, making plays that defy physics. That’s the guy we expected to see week in and week out.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Revamped Offense

Now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty, because the underlying stats tell a fascinating story. Mahomes’ true dropback percentage is sitting at a career low of 53.6%. You’d think that’s a red flag for fantasy points since dropbacks and designed rushes are where quarterbacks usually feast, and he hasn’t even had a designed rush in two games. But here’s the twist: his scramble rate is holding steady, so any of those pesky ACL concerns? They look pretty much nil from his perspective. What’s absolutely blowing my mind, though, is his off-target rate, which is also at a career low of 5.4%! That’s surgical precision, folks. Plus, his yards per attempt are the best they’ve been since 2022, and his play-action rate is absolutely soaring, hitting 28.6%, the highest since 2020. Oh, and he’s seeing the second-lowest pressure rate of his career. It’s early, but you gotta say it: the Chiefs actually have a good offense again. Kenneth Walker has been incredible, and Emmett Johnson looks better than any back they’ve had on the roster in the last three years. This running game is going to open up even more scoring opportunities, even though the Chiefs are still having more success passing in the red zone than rushing. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.

What to Expect: Dolphins Next, And Beyond

All this fire is enough for the experts to rank Mahomes as a top-10 QB this week against the Dolphins, a first for him all season. Of course, there’s always that slight risk he only throws like 20 passes and the running backs score all the touchdowns, especially against teams you’re supposed to beat easily. But honestly, that’s a risk you gotta take with a guy playing at this level. Looking ahead to the rest of the season, Mahomes is projected as a QB10. That’s a massive jump from where everyone had him ranked in the preseason. He’s climbing, and the entire league is on notice.

This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.

Originally reported by CBS Sports.

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