Matt LaFleur, head coach of the Green Bay Packers, is officially the oddsmakers’ favorite to be the first coach canned this NFL season. Despite Green Bay pulling out an improbable win against the New York Jets and moving to 1-1 on the young season, the heat on LaFleur is absolutely scorching right now.
The Odds Are Stacked Against LaFleur
Look, the numbers don’t lie. Oddsmakers Kalshi give LaFleur a staggering 64% chance of leaving the Packers before February 15, 2027. That puts him ahead of every other coach in the entire league. He is four percentage points clear of Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni at 60%, with Washington’s Dan Quinn, Jim Harbaugh of the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Jets’ Aaron Glenn all tied at 50.0%. LaFleur, in Year 8 with Green Bay, is the longest-tenured head coach without a Super Bowl. He’s also a brutal 1-5 in his last six playoff games, with just one playoff win since 2020.
From Championship Contender to Hot Seat
It feels like just yesterday LaFleur was leading the Packers to NFC Championship Games in 2019 and 2020, going an incredible 41-13 in his first three seasons. But things have absolutely spiraled since then. The team is just 39-34-1 since that hot start and hasn’t sniffed anything higher than the No. 7 seed in the playoffs since 2021. Many in Packer Nation wanted him gone after that ‘epic collapse’ against Chicago in the 2025 NFC Wild Card game. Instead, new team president Ed Policy made the shocking call to extend his contract. Now, the Packers are on pace to set an NFL record for both penalties and penalty yards this season. You can’t make this stuff up.
Green Bay has only had three head coaches this century, with Mike McCarthy getting the boot with four games left in 2018. Precedent is not on LaFleur’s side, and with nearly $600 million in cash reserves, the Packers won’t bat an eye at eating the rest of his contract if this 2026 season continues its disappointing trend. This is about LaFleur’s future, and it hangs in the balance every single Sunday.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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