The San Francisco 49ers are 2-0, fresh off a 27-7 blowout win over the Los Angeles Rams, and they’ve actually exceeded what anyone expected early in the season. Their offense has been on point, and the defense has given up just 20 points through two games. They look like they’re humming along, even with some injuries, but when you dig into the numbers, there’s one glaring problem that could bite them hard.
Crushing It Everywhere Else, Seriously
Let’s be real, the 49ers have looked good, really good. They’re sitting fourth in the league with 31.0 points per game and eighth in yards per game at 380.5. Their overall defense is no joke either, allowing just 287.0 yards per game, good for tenth in the NFL. And on third downs? Forget about it. They’re converting over 63 percent of the time, second best in the entire league. It’s clear they’ve handled new personnel on both sides of the ball really well so far. Their pass defense has been especially strong, ranking eighth in dropback EPA allowed per play and third in dropback success rate. Even in close first-half situations, they’re still ninth and fifth in those categories. So yeah, there have been some real defensive improvements.
The Run D: A Big, UGLY Problem
But here’s where it gets dicey, and this is the problem that’s been masked by their dominant offense. While their overall run defense numbers like 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.0) and 13th in yards allowed per attempt (3.9) don’t scream “disaster,” the tape and deeper stats tell a different story. They’ve struggled against the run in the first halves of both the Rams and Dolphins games. And the numbers back that up big time.
Overall, they’re 13th in rush EPA allowed per play, which isn’t terrible. But then you hit the success rate allowed, and they drop to 27th in the NFL at 46.4 percent. Now, brace yourself, because when you look specifically at the first half? Their rush EPA allowed per play absolutely plummets to 30th in the NFL, sitting at an ugly 0.165. And their rush success rate allowed in the first half? That’s easily the worst in the entire league at a horrifying 60.6 percent. Think about that for a second. Over 60 percent of opposing first-half runs are successful. That’s a massive red flag. They’ve got some injuries on the defensive line, and they’re relying on younger guys, but this is a problem that showed up last year too.
This issue has been hidden by the fact that San Francisco’s offense has been steamrolling opponents. So far, it hasn’t actually cost them a game. But in closer contests, where teams can’t just abandon the run in the second half because the score is too lopsided, this first-half vulnerability is going to get exposed.
Next up, the 49ers face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3. The big question is whether the Cardinals can exploit this glaring first-half run defense weakness. Will this finally be the week this ugly number comes back to bite them, or can their offense keep bailing them out? We’ll be watching to see if this trend continues.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Niners Nation.
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