Number 4-ranked Ole Miss is hitting the road to face No. 21 Florida this Saturday, but despite coming off a huge 32-24 win and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss rocketing to the top of the Heisman odds board, oddsmakers have them as a 3.5-point underdog. Florida head coach Jon Sumrall himself even seemed surprised when the media told him his team was favored, joking that, “There’s a lot of good drugs out there.” This is not just some random line either, folks. If this spread holds, it will be only the fifth time since 1978 that a top-five ranked team is an underdog against a team ranked outside the top 20, according to ESPN research. What’s even crazier? Those previous four top-five teams went 0-4 outright, not covering any of those games.
Vegas Says “Not So Fast” After Ole Miss’s Big Win
Ole Miss definitely has momentum after that Saturday night victory against their former coach Lane Kiffin, a game that was one of the most hyped and memorable regular season college football matchups in a long time. Chambliss was phenomenal, completing 33-of-48 passes for 363 yards and three total touchdowns. You’d think with that kind of performance, and the betting public pouring money on the Rebels, they’d be favorites. One oddsmaker even noted “one-way action” on Ole Miss, especially on the moneyline. But Vegas isn’t swayed by public sentiment or recent hype. This line suggests oddsmakers see something entirely different.
The Real Reasons Why Florida Is Favored
So, what’s the deal here? Oddsmakers have pointed to a few key factors. First, Ole Miss star running back Kewan Lacy’s status is up in the air; he left the LSU game with an “upper-body injury,” and while X-rays were negative on his shoulder, he’s a game-time decision. That’s a big piece missing for the Rebels. BetMGM’s lead college football trader Seamus Magee highlighted that this is “a pretty bad spot for Ole Miss” emotionally, having to go to “the Swamp” right after playing what “felt like their Super Bowl.” Florida under Coach Sumrall has also quietly seen a “pretty decent upgrade on the market,” with their power rating increasing. The Gators’ offense, led by Aaron Philo and Jadan Baugh, looked great last week in Auburn. Plus, home-field advantage in college football is massive, often worth 2.5-3 points to the spread, and Gainesville’s “Swamp” is one of the best venues in the sport. Joey Feazel, head NFL and college football oddsmaker at Caesars Sports, emphasized that oddsmakers don’t just go by rankings; they see this as a “pretty even matchup” and “Florida is a very tough place to play.”
This Saturday, all eyes are going to be on this matchup. Can Ole Miss defy historical trends and prove the oddsmakers wrong, or will Florida continue its under-the-radar ascent and hand a top-five team a rare upset loss at home? Get ready for another intense Saturday of college football!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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