The Buffalo Bills are officially under new leadership, with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady stepping into the head coach role after Sean McDermott’s dismissal. Everyone in the league is buzzing about how much this offense will actually change in 2026 compared to last year. How much of that 2025 attack was really McDermott’s brainchild, and how much was Brady’s? It’s all speculation right now, but we’re about to find out when those bullets start flying in Week 1.
The Obvious vs. The Hidden Truth of Brady’s Bills
So, how exactly are we going to measure this new era in Buffalo? The obvious go-to for most fans and analysts will be the run/pass ratio. The Bills have been at the top of the league in overall run rate for the past few seasons. So, how pass-happy they are right out of the gate is going to be the easiest barometer for people trying to figure out if we’re seeing a true “Brady-envisioned offense” or just a “McDermott-envisioned offense run by Brady.” But I’m telling you, while that’s important, there’s an even deeper metric we need to keep our eyes glued to: first-read targets.
Unlocking the Real Offensive Shift With First-Read Targets
First-read targets are going to tell us everything about how much this offense truly departs from previous years. It’s about who Brady wants the ball to go to immediately, not just who gets the scraps. In 2025, according to Fantasy Points, here’s how the Bills stacked up in first-read targets per game:
* Khalil Shakir: 69 total targets (4.21 per game, 23.5% of the team’s total). The “spam the screen to Shakir” narrative was absolutely justified, he was the guy.
* Keon Coleman: 46 total (3.54 per game, 19.3%)
* Dalton Kincaid: 38 total (3.16 per game, 17.3%)
* Gabe Davis: 14 total (2.33 per game, 12.3%)
* Joshua Palmer: 27 total (2.25 per game, 11.7%)
* Brandin Cooks: 10 total (1.43 per game, 11.2%)
* Dawson Knox: 34 total (2.00 per game, 10.8%)
* Elijah Moore: 12 total (1.33 per game, 7.1%)
* Tyrell Shavers: 13 total (0.76 per game, 4.1%)
* Curtis Samuel: 4 total (0.67 per game, 3.8%)
* Mecole Hardman: 1 total (0.50 per game, 3.1%)
* Keleki Latu: 2 total (0.40 per game, 2.1%)
* Jackson Hawes: 5 total (0.29 per game, 1.6%)
Now, those numbers are sorted by per game to account for missed time, but here’s the kicker: Dalton Kincaid. This dude missed games, and even when he played, he was dealing with lingering knee issues, which meant load management. His snap counts weren’t what they could have been. But you know what? The word on the street, directly from Kincaid himself, is he’s never felt better! A healthy Dalton Kincaid is a game-changer, and his first-read targets could absolutely explode this season.
When the Bills kick off their 2026 campaign, keep a laser focus on those first-read targets, especially Kincaid’s. Forget just the run/pass ratio; this is how we’ll truly see Brady’s offensive vision take shape. Get ready to watch a whole new Buffalo team unfold, because if Kincaid is truly unleashed, the league better be ready!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Buffalo Rumblings.
Leave a Reply