Man, Week 3 against the Falcons was a wild one for Green Bay. You watched it, right? Because if you did, you know they were chucking the ball like crazy. We’re talking an absurd 85.7% pass rate for the whole game. That’s not just high, folks, that’s a whopping 30.27% above the NFL average. And don’t even try to say it was just because they were playing catch-up late. They had a 79.2% pass rate in the first half alone, and were at 80% in the first quarter!
Did The Air Raid Even Work?
Here’s the kicker: all that passing was, well, only kinda effective. The passing game scraped by with a +0.01 EPA per Play and a 42.6% Success Rate. Not exactly lighting the world on fire, but still way better than their run game, which tanked at -0.33 EPA per Play with only a 33.3% Success Rate. So, yeah, they were leaning on the pass for a reason, even if it wasn’t a masterclass.
What’s concerning is that the Falcons barely even blitzed. Their defensive coordinator mixed it up, sure, but they only blitzed on 16.67% of snaps, almost 15% below the league average. Yet, Love was still pressured on 44.44% of his dropbacks! That’s a problem when you’re throwing it that much, even if his average time to throw went up slightly to 2.46 seconds from his 2.35 seconds coming into the game. That pressure, man, it hits fast, averaging just 2.5 seconds to get to him.
Personnel Shifts and Run Game Struggles
This week also saw Green Bay heavily favoring 11 personnel, rocking 1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs on 81% of their snaps. Again, playing catch-up skews it a bit, but they were still in 11 personnel on 66.7% of their first half snaps. That’s a massive jump from Week 1’s 47.8% and Week 2’s 56%. They were clearly going with more 3-WR sets from the jump. Good news is, it was their most effective grouping, posting a +0.13 EPA per Play out of 11 personnel (+0.06 in the first half). Their other looks, 12 personnel at 15.9% and 13 personnel at 3.2%, were both way in the negative, at -0.55 and -1.24 EPA per Play respectively. Stick to what works, right?
But then there’s the run game. They’re still moving away from a zone-heavy system, only running something in the zone family on 33.3% of their plays. Seems counterintuitive given some of their smaller guys up front, but they just can’t get any push with zone blocking. Their only success running the ball comes from pulling those smaller bodies and smashing them into linebackers. It creates some cool play-action looks, but the run game itself? Zero. The only positive EPA per Play run they had was to the B gap, and that was on a single attempt. Brutal.
A Bright Spot Emerges
Hey, I gotta give a quick shout-out to J. Michael Sturdivant. The dude had 3 catches for 22 yards, with a great +1.11 EPA per Reception. Two of those, with an even better +2.23 EPA per Reception, came on slants. He showed real skill on those in the preseason, and it’s translating. This big, fast receiver with some suddenness could be a real weapon if they keep feeding him. He’s something to look forward to, even with the rest of the run game struggles and all that passing. Next game, they gotta figure out if this aggressive passing game is sustainable or if they need to find some balance, because relying this heavily on one approach against better defenses could be a problem.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Acme Packing Company.
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