Get ready for a defensive slugfest because the expert pick for the Iowa-Michigan Big Ten clash this weekend is a hard “Under.” Seriously, the word is out: nobody is going to score in this game, and that’s not just some hot take, it’s based on some cold, hard facts about both these squads.
The Grindhouse in Iowa City (and Ann Arbor)
First off, let’s talk about Michigan’s offense, because it’s been… something. They’ve only managed four touchdowns across nine quarters this season against Western Michigan, Oklahoma, and UTEP. Two of those scores were literally a Hail Mary to end the WMU game and a short-field gimme after an Oklahoma interception. Yeah, they put up “a bunch” in the second half against UTEP, but come on, that’s UTEP! Now they roll into a matchup with an Iowa defense that’s legendary for being the same brick wall every single season. The Hawkeyes don’t give up explosive plays, they are physical, they are sound, and they sit in zone daring teams to “dink and dunk.” They are absolutely going to make Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood try to beat them, and that feels like a huge ask for him right now.
And if you think Iowa’s offense is going to bail us out with some fireworks, think again. That unit is still not explosive. Against Iowa State, a defense that could “sort of punch back,” they scored 16 points, had under 300 yards of offense, and converted only 33 percent on third down. Sure, they have wide receiver Tony Diaz, but Michigan’s defense, which ranks seventh in yards per play and is stout at preventing points, will just take him away. Honestly, how does Iowa score much here? You’ve also got two head coaches, Michigan’s Kyle Whittingham and Iowa’s Kirk Frentz, who are totally cool with a low-scoring affair. They both preach ball protection, running the rock, and punting. Get ready for multiple punts from the 40-yard line, because this is going to be a field-position war.
Ducks Flying High in SoCal
Switching gears to the other big game, your Ducks are heading to SoCal to face USC, and while I like Oregon to win, the expert is skipping the spread. Instead, the move is on quarterback Dante Moore’s Over for passing yards. Why? Because the Oregon offense is leaning into the passing game this season, with the rushing attack not quite hitting last year’s explosive levels. Moore slung it 38 times for 378 yards against Boise State! He had 191 yards against Oklahoma State, and yeah, he looked a little disjointed, but with fewer drops, he’s easily near 250 yards. Oregon’s wide receivers and tight ends are a serious mismatch against USC’s pass defense. USC’s D is a shaky 103rd in success rate, and that’s against San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana, and Rutgers. Rutgers was the only one of those teams that could even throw the ball (and that’s being generous), and their quarterback still threw for 252 yards. Moore is about to feast.
Week 4 is shaping up to be wild, with two totally different Big Ten battles. Get ready for the defensive chess match in Iowa-Michigan and then watch Dante Moore light up the sky against USC!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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