Alabama, currently sitting at a solid 3-0, is about to host the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, Sept. 26, in a massive SEC showdown. But here’s the kicker: the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates these games 10,000 times, is giving South Carolina a 36% chance to win outright. Let that sink in. While the Crimson Tide are the heavy favorites, trading at $0.82 a share for a win, that 36% from the model has gotta make you wonder if an upset is brewing, even if the Gamecocks are only at $0.19. This isn’t just another Saturday in the SEC; something could be cooking.
Bama’s Undefeated, But It Hasn’t Been Easy
The Crimson Tide are indeed 3-0 in 2026, which is exactly what you want to see early in the season. But let’s be real, it hasn’t been a cakewalk. Their last two wins? Kinda close. They were trailing Kentucky at halftime in Week 2 before they finally pulled it together with a shutout second half. And last week against Florida State, it was a shootout, though they still managed to win by 14 points, which is their lowest margin of victory this year. Historically, Alabama has had South Carolina’s number, winning the last three matchups. You can see why they’re confident, but those “close” wins are definitely something to chew on.
Gamecocks Hit a Wall, and Tuscaloosa Is a Tough Trip
South Carolina started off hot with a 2-0 record, looking good. Then last weekend hit, and they dropped their first SEC game, falling 41-34 at home to Mississippi State. That’s a gut punch, for sure. Now they gotta travel to Tuscaloosa, a place where the program has historically struggled. Remember last year? They kept it close, a 29-22 defeat, but that was at home. Their road record in 2025 was a brutal 0-4! Talk about a rough travel schedule. Their lone loss this year was by seven points to Mississippi State, and they lost by seven to Alabama last year, too. The model might give them a decent shot, but the road doesn’t lie.
Alabama is trading at $0.53 to win by more than 11.5 points, while the “No” is at $0.48. That SportsLine Projection Model, though? It actually has South Carolina winning outright *or* losing by fewer than 11.5 points in the vast majority of its simulations. So, while Vegas loves the Tide to win big, the data says South Carolina could absolutely keep this thing tight or even shock the world. Get ready for Saturday, Sept. 26, because this SEC clash could be way more interesting than the records suggest.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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