The 2026 NFL season hasn’t even kicked off yet, but a seriously sharp computer model just dropped a bomb on fantasy football drafts, simulating the whole thing 10,000 times to pinpoint this year’s biggest busts. We’re talking about the same system that perfectly called Terry McLaurin’s massive down season, and now it has some *very* strong opinions about players you might be reaching for.
This Model’s Track Record Is Undeniable
You might be thinking, “a computer model, really?” But this isn’t some shot in the dark. Last year, this exact SportsLine model warned everyone that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin was going to fall way short of his top-50 ADP. And boy, did it deliver. After putting up nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-best 13 touchdowns the year before, McLaurin hit career lows with just 582 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Injuries played a role, sure, but his per-game averages were down everywhere. Anyone who listened and passed on him avoided a major headache, plain and simple.
This isn’t a one-hit wonder either. We’re talking about a model that identified A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailed Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season, and even saw C.J. Stroud taking a step back in 2024. Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, Davante Adams in 2017 , all called as sleepers. When this thing talks, you listen.
Your Draft Board Is Wrong About Malik Nabers
So, who’s the top bust this proven system is flagging for 2026? It’s New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers. This guy is flying off draft boards around pick No. 32, but the SportsLine model totally disagrees, not even putting him in its top-15 receivers. Think about that! Players like DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers are all projected above him. Why the red flag? Nabers tore his ACL last season and then had a follow-up procedure earlier this spring. He’s not even a lock to be ready for Week 1. Plus, the Giants’ offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is expected to make that offense lean heavy on the run game. Snagging Nabers in the second or early third round? That’s a huge risk.
Nabers isn’t the only one getting the bust label. The model also identified Bills running back James Cook as another player to be wary of. The 2026 NFL season kicks off on September 9th and training camps are getting underway, so fantasy draft prep is in full swing. If you’re serious about your fantasy league this year, you need to check out the full rankings and busts from SportsLine before you make any moves.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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