The Chicago Bears are officially rolling with third-stringer Case Keenum at quarterback for Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s been a wild ride this past week trying to figure out who would even be under center for Chicago, with Caleb Williams out and Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol for days, even though he’s now cleared. But the surprise is real: Keenum, who hasn’t seen game action since late 2023, is getting the nod.
The QB Value Drop Just Got Real For Chicago
We all know how much a starting quarterback is worth to the spread, right? Oddsmakers polled by Ben Fawkes put the average drop-off from a guy like Caleb Williams to Tyson Bagent at just under five points. That totally tracks when you look at how the Bears’ lookahead line shifted from -1.5 in the summer to where it is now. And honestly, those five points are huge, crossing both pick’em and that critical -3 mark. With a healthy Bagent, fully prepped, you might see some value on the Bears. But now? We’re talking Case Keenum. Is that five-point assessment even close to enough for a quarterback who’s been on the bench for so long? The betting market is always trying to assess the true value of these guys, and right now, the value on Chicago’s offense feels like it just evaporated.
Ben Johnson’s Offense Is In For a ROUGH Night
Some might think anyone can just run Ben Johnson’s offense normally. But what even *is* “business as usual” for Chicago? Last season, their offense actually kinda thrived in total chaos, with way better metrics when they were down by two scores or on fourth downs. In standard situations, though, like first, second, or third down when the game wasn’t already decided, the Bears’ pass offense was a dismal 23rd in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. This season, sure, they blew up for 59 points in Week 1, but even before Williams got hurt in Week 2, a solid Vikings defense with a veteran defensive coordinator absolutely tied Johnson’s offense in knots. Now, you’ve got Keenum, who has never operated an offense run by a No. 1 overall pick, suddenly trying to make it all work against a Vic Fangio defense. Good luck with that.
Eagles’ D-Line Is Ready To Feast
The Eagles defense has been absolutely battering the interior offensive lines of both the Commanders and Titans, causing those centers to get absolutely roasted with bad PFF grades. Now they face Garrett Bradbury, the Bears’ center, who’s ranked 26th by PFF and has looked completely overwhelmed in two games filling in for Pro-Bowler Drew Dalman, who surprisingly retired this offseason. What’s more probable for tonight? That Johnson’s offense magically runs without a hitch with Keenum, or that the Eagles’ defensive front just goes to work on a shaky O-line and a rusty quarterback? It’s not rocket science. Everything points to Philadelphia dominating the trenches and putting serious pressure on Keenum.
So, when you look at all this, the play for Monday night is clear: **bet the Philadelphia Eagles to cover the spread.** This isn’t just about covering, this is about the Eagles defense making a huge statement, shutting down a Bears offense that’s just trying to survive. Get ready for a physical game, and hopefully, some smart football from the Philly side.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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