The Houston Texans are staring down a brutal 0-3 start to the 2026 NFL season, joining four other teams in the winless club. But don’t go lumping them in with the Miami Dolphins or Tennessee Titans just yet, because this isn’t your typical bottom-tier squad. There’s a real buzz that this team, despite their rocky start, is still poised for a serious turnaround.
Deja Vu, But With Way More Talent
Last year, the Texans proved they could dig out of an 0-3 hole and make the postseason. This year, they’ve got the talent and an elite defense that immediately separates them from the league’s true bottom dwellers. Coach DeMeco Ryans, who’s already eyeing his fourth divisional round appearance in as many years to kick off his career, knows what it takes to flip the script. So far this season, that “monstrous” defense hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations in the first three weeks, and the offense has sputtered too. But the blueprint for a comeback is there, and everyone remembers what they pulled off last year.
Seriously, The Luck Is *That* Bad
If you’re wondering how a team with this much talent ends up 0-3, the numbers are screaming “bad luck.” The Texans are actually tied with the Los Angeles Chargers for the worst luck rating in the entire NFL, according to TeamRankings. We’re talking coin-flip plays and straight-up flukes consistently going against them. Think back to Week 1, when standout cornerback Kamari Lassiter had a game-sealing interception against the Buffalo Bills, widely considered the best team in the league. He just couldn’t hang onto it, and the Bills immediately capitalized with a game-winning touchdown. That play alone could have had the Texans sitting at 1-0.
And it gets wilder. NFL senior manager, football operations data scientist, Tom Bliss, dropped some eye-opening metrics that prove how incredibly unfortunate this squad has been. The Texans have the worst luck in opponents’ dropped passes, opponents’ field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries, by a factor of nearly three in win probability in each category. Bliss’s data even flagged Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard, go-ahead field goal for the Indianapolis Colts last week, which sealed a 19-17 loss for Houston, as the second-most-impactful play of the season from a luck perspective. That’s just brutal.
The early season hasn’t been what anyone wanted, but the evidence suggests this team is far better than their record. With the luck surely set to regress to the mean, there’s every reason to believe the Houston Texans will reverse their fortunes and get right back on the road to the playoffs.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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