Get ready for some serious pitching in the Bronx, because the advanced models are absolutely screaming one thing for the first game of the Yankees vs. Pirates doubleheader today: the total runs are going way under 9.5. After 10,000 simulations, the SportsLine Projection Model is locked in, calling for a tight 9.3 combined runs between these two squads.
Cole and Keller Face Off in a Gritty Matchup
This doubleheader is happening because Tuesday’s game got rained out, so we’re diving straight into some mid-week action. The New York Yankees, sitting second in the AL East with a 56-44 record, are sending former Pirate Gerrit Cole to the mound. He’s got a 3-5 record with a solid 3.93 ERA. Across from him, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 52-49 and tied for the last Wild Card spot in the NL Central, will trot out Mitch Keller, who’s currently 6-7 with a 5.14 ERA. First pitch for this critical Game 1 is set for 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Don’t forget, the Yankees have been owning the Pirates lately, with a 4-1 record over their last five matchups.
Why the Numbers Don’t Lie on This Under Call
So, why are the models so confident on the Under? It’s not just a hunch, there are some serious stats backing it up. For starters, this is technically Game 2 of the series because of the rainout, and the last five Game 2s for the Pirates have all gone under the total. That’s a trend that’s hard to ignore.
Then there’s Gerrit Cole. When he’s on the mound and sporting a sub-4.00 ERA, the Under has hit in 8 out of 10 Yankees games. Plus, Cole has absolutely tormented current Pirates batters, holding them to a combined .185 average on 15 hits in 81 at-bats. That’s just brutal for Pittsburgh. And get this: Mitch Keller actually *prefers* pitching in the daytime. He boasts a respectable 3.60 ERA in day games compared to a rough 6.58 mark under the lights. Today’s game? You guessed it, a day game. All these trends stack up, pointing directly to a low-scoring affair, with the model’s 9.3 combined runs projection sealing the deal.
So, with all these numbers aligning, get ready for a low-scoring grinder in the Bronx. You gotta wonder if either offense can break through against these trends. Let’s see if Cole keeps dealing and Keller delivers on his day-game magic!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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