Hold up, football fanatics, because the NFL is sending us a clear message about rookie running backs for 2026, and it’s not what you might expect. CBS Sports’ fantasy football experts are projecting just three rookies to crack 100 carries this season, a sharp drop from the nine who hit that mark last year. What in the world is going on with the position? It feels like we’re seeing a seismic shift in how teams value their young ball carriers.
The Grind of the Game and Changing Trends
Remember back from 2016 to 2021 when the league averaged 10 rushers with 1,000-plus yards every single season? That felt like the norm, right? But then the past four years flipped the script, averaging 15 rushers over that 1,000-yard threshold. More guys getting a piece of the pie, but maybe fewer bell cows overall. This year’s draft saw only three running backs taken in the top-100 overall, which tells you everything about the league’s priority at the position. Teams aren’t just handing the keys over to rookies like they used to, and it’s making an instant impact harder than ever for these new guys.
Who’s Actually Got a Shot at Making Noise?
So who are these experts even looking at? Coming in at number five is **Jonah Coleman** with the Broncos. Some other guys like Nick Singleton for the Titans and Adam Randall with the Ravens were in the mix, but Coleman snagged the spot. He was the fourth-highest drafted running back in his class at No. 108 overall, and the dude was a pass-game threat at Washington, making him a true three-down back. With J.K. Dobbins’ injury history and R.J. Harvey’s size questions, Coleman has a path to a big share of carries. They’re projecting him for 32 carries, 134 yards, and one touchdown, good for 25.4 fantasy points.
Then there’s **Mike Washington Jr.** for the Raiders at number four. This guy was a pre-draft favorite with his size, burst, and three-down potential. He’s probably going to be the “thunder to Jeanty’s lightning,” with Ashton Jeanty, last year’s No. 6 overall pick, still the Raiders’ main guy. Jeanty had almost all of Las Vegas’ running back carries last season, all but 41 of them! The new coaching staff probably wants to spread that workload around. And here’s where it gets interesting for us Seattle fans: the **Seahawks** actually had two running backs with 180-plus carries last season. See? We know how to spread the wealth when it makes sense! Washington Jr. is projected for 97 carries, 340 yards, and two scores, putting him at 89 fantasy points.
Finally, at number three, **Kaelon Black** from the 49ers. There’s a “clear gap” between the top two guys and the rest, but opportunity could change everything. The 49ers actually got some heat for drafting Black, along with wide receiver De’Zhaun Stribling. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch even had “surly responses” in press conferences about it. You gotta wonder if San Francisco will funnel touches to Black just to justify the pick. But if history’s any guide, with past Day 2 running backs like Ty Davis-Price and Trey Sermon combining for just 81 carries, they might be overthinking it.
So, what does this all mean for us? It’s a wake-up call that the NFL is evolving, and those workhorse rookie backs we used to dream about are becoming rarer than a sunny day in January. We’ll be watching these rookies closely when the season kicks off, seeing if any of them can defy the projections and carve out a bigger role. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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