Okay, so Week 4 is already here, and if you’re like me, you’re staring down some brutal fantasy decisions. Three weeks in, and we’ve got a solid sample size to pick through, but man, are some of those “sure thing” starters letting us down? You’re not alone, buddy.
Early Season Disappointments and the Injury Report Is Rough
It feels like every week we’re talking about guys who were supposed to be locked-in starters, but they’re just not delivering. Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Courtland Sutton, and Tucker Kraft are all underperforming, and it’s making those start-sit calls a nightmare. And as if that wasn’t enough, the injury bug is absolutely brutal right now. De’Von Achane is out for the year, which is just gutting. Then you’ve got Travis Etienne and Baker Mayfield out for a few weeks, which shakes things up big time. On top of that, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua are all looking iffy for Week 4. And let’s not even start on the Bears, with Caleb Williams still week-to-week thanks to that hamstring. We don’t even know who’s under center for them! There’s so much chaos to consider before you even think about setting your lineup.
The Model Is Calling Out a “Sure Thing” Wide Receiver
Now, here’s where it gets wild. This proven computer model, which has absolutely crushed human experts in fantasy football for seasons, is dropping some serious curveballs. One of the biggest surprises for Week 4 is that the model isn’t high on Eagles wideout DeVonta Smith. I know, right? The guy is averaging a solid 78.3 yards per game and has a touchdown, making him the WR11 in PPR leagues. But listen to this: the same offensive struggles that Philly had last year are still around. They’re bottom 10 in points scored, total yards gained, and passing offense this season. Plus, Smith and the Eagles face the Rams this Sunday, and he’s never topped 60 yards in three career games against Los Angeles. That Rams defense is absolutely suffocating for wide receivers, too; no team has allowed fewer catches to wideouts than them in 2026. So, despite the surface stats, the model says Smith doesn’t even crack the top 25 at his position, making him a player to fade this week. Oh, and get this, the model is also super high on Tex… (the source cuts off here, man, but you know it’s a hot take).
So what’s the play? This model has a killer track record, especially when its rankings differ from the so-called experts. When it screams to fade a guy like Smith, you gotta listen. Don’t let these early-season curveballs sink your week, man. Trust the numbers, and let’s get those W’s!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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