Chicago Bears fans are hyped for the 2026 season like no other fanbase, even more so than us here in the Pacific Northwest, according to the league chatter. They went 11-6 last year, snagged the NFC North title, and even pulled off two unbelievable home wins against the hated Packers, one in the playoffs! Caleb Williams was dropping insane highlights, and Ben Johnson looked like the genius coach everyone expected. But before we crown them Super Bowl contenders, let’s pump the brakes a bit because the numbers from last season are throwing up some serious red flags for what’s coming next.
The Illusion of Dominance
Man, last season felt like a party in Chicago, especially after nearly knocking off a Rams team everyone’s picking to win the Super Bowl this year. Everyone’s talking Super Bowl contender, right? But if you dig into the stats, it’s not looking as sustainable as their fans want to believe. They led the entire NFL with a ridiculous +22 turnover margin, which was five better than the next closest team and nine better than third place. Seriously, that kind of luck? It’s almost impossible to replicate. TheOddsBreakers.com even said there was a three-win gap between their Pythagorean win total and actual wins, the highest in the NFL. Their +26 point differential was only third best in the NFC North, and worse than the Steelers and Panthers among all playoff teams. That’s a red flag waving in the wind, big time.
Clutch or Just Lucky?
It gets crazier when you look at how they actually won those games. Eight wins, playoffs included, were decided by one score! We know how fluky those can be, just ask the Chiefs. Remember when they needed a blocked field goal to beat the Raiders? Or how about the time they were trailing the Giants 20-10 when Jaxson Dart got concussed in the fourth quarter, basically saving them? Then there was the last-minute touchdown to beat Joe Flacco and the Bengals, and barely scraping by mediocre teams like the Commanders and Vikings. And get this: last season, they had the seventh easiest schedule in the league via DVOA. This season? It flips to the sixth toughest via SharpFootball.com. DVOA had them ranked 16th overall, net yards per play tied for 17th. Their offense was 11th in success rate, but their defense? A dismal 26th. Any way you slice it with the advanced stats, these guys look more like a middle-of-the-pack team than a true top 10 squad.
Bears fans are gonna scream that Johnson and Williams, plus their exciting young talent, are enough to overcome all this. And yeah, Williams has upside even if he needs to clean up his accuracy. Johnson absolutely backed up his swagger. But as the 2026 season gets underway, are they the real deal or are they about to get a serious dose of reality? Their schedule is tougher, their luck can’t hold forever. We’ll be watching to see if the hype was deserved, or if those analytics gurus are about to be proven right. Either way, it’s going to be a wild ride.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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