Look, last week was a bit of a gut punch, going 1-4, but let’s not get it twisted, we’re still sitting pretty solid overall for the season at 13-10. This week, it’s all about digging deep into the college football Week 5 wagers, and there are some real doozies coming our way.
Buckeyes Domination and Boiler Pride Bets
First up, there’s no way Iowa drags Ohio State into the deep end here, no chance. Iowa’s offense has been flat-out missing in action against Iowa State and Michigan. We just saw Bryce Underwood throw for nearly 300 yards last week, so what do you think Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are gonna do? Maybe Iowa gets some fluke chain of events like they pulled off in Ann Arbor last week, but honestly, when Iowa is a double-digit underdog, it almost always ends in a sound defeat. And get this: Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is a perfect 26-0 on the road as a double-digit favorite. Since 2023, in the last nine times they were in that spot, the Buckeyes allowed just 8.4 points per game and never more than 16. That’s just unreal.
Then we’ve got Purdue, who’s been bleeding points all season. They gave up 38, 52, and 49 against their three Power 4 opponents and got absolutely clobbered by Notre Dame last week, losing by 39. I’m holding my breath here and hoping the Boilers actually show some pride after that embarrassment. I’m not convinced Illinois is all that good, especially on defense. Purdue actually put up 36 and 38 in losses to Wake Forest and UCLA, and I think both those teams are better than Illinois. If they can hit those numbers again, we should be good for the cover.
Canes on the Road and Weekend Underdog Opportunities
Clemson’s offense has been a tough watch for most of the season, let’s be real. They’re 3-1, but it’s an unimpressive 3-1, barely surviving against North Carolina and Cal. Meanwhile, everyone’s got doubts about Miami, but the Canes have blown out everyone they’ve played and racked up two conference road wins against Stanford and Wake Forest. Sure, the competition hasn’t been stellar, but LSU and North Carolina both ran all over Clemson. Now you’ve got a new offensive line on the road for Miami and Mark Fletcher. This could totally be that 2025 CFP Miami vibe, where they just grind it out with the running game and then hit you with a few huge plays through the air. A 34-13 type win for the Canes just feels right.
Looking for some upsets? Here are the ‘dogs to play on the moneyline:
* Mississippi State +185
* Auburn +235
* Missouri +180
* Northwestern +125
Just a heads-up, we’re 0-0 last week on these picks and 2-4 for the season, sitting at -0.86 units. So pick wisely!
The Wild Numbers You Can’t Ignore
Let’s talk about some wild stats that are shaping this season. We’ve seen five of the eleven games between ranked teams decided by three points or fewer this year. That’s some nail-biting stuff! Favorites of 14+ points are crushing it, going 192-5 straight up this season. And Notre Dame, after that infamous loss to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite, has won their last 15 games when they were 20-point favorites. Those 15 wins? By an average of 33 points, giving up only 10.1 points per game. Only one of those wins was by less than 17 points. Also, this is the first time since 2007 that Alabama is favored by 7 points or fewer over Mississippi State. You know what else happened in 2007? That was the last time the Bulldogs actually beat the Tide.
It’s going to be another wild weekend of college football. Get those picks in, and let’s see if we can boost that season record even higher!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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