Ben Johnson has officially surged to the top of the 2026 NFL Coach of the Year odds, now sitting at +500 according to DraftKings Sportsbook as of October 7. This dude has his Chicago Bears sitting pretty at 3-1, even after losing starting quarterback Caleb Williams to a hamstring injury all the way back in Week 2. Talk about exceeding expectations early in the season!
The Early Frontrunners Who Are Shocking the League
Johnson’s Bears aren’t just winning, they’re making statements. That decisive 27-7 victory over the Eagles in Week 3? That tells you everything you need to know about what he’s building without his main guy under center. It’s exactly the kind of turnaround story the Coach of the Year award loves, rewarding someone who takes a franchise to the next level or engineers a major reversal of fortune.
Right on Johnson’s heels is Klint Kubiak of the Raiders, holding strong at +600. His Raiders also boast a 3-1 record over three weeks, including a monster upset win over the Chargers. You gotta respect that kind of early-season impact, especially when the league is still figuring itself out.
The Fading Favorite and a Winning Trend to Watch
Not everyone is climbing the odds board though. John Harbaugh, who started the season as the +600 favorite for the Giants, has seen his odds fall to +1100. A blowout Week 2 loss to the Rams and, even worse, starting quarterback Jaxson Dart suffering a season-ending injury, definitely took the wind out of his sails. It just shows how quickly things can change in this league, and how much early-season performance and player health impact these awards.
It’s also worth noting a fascinating trend: over the last decade, a wild 60% of Coach of the Year winners were in their very first season with their team. That’s huge context for a guy like Kubiak. Could he keep that trend rolling? We’ve seen it recently too. Mike Vrabel snagged the award in 2025 in his first season with the Patriots, transforming them from a 4-13 team in 2024 to a 13-4 powerhouse in 2025, winning the AFC East, and even making a Super Bowl appearance. He actually won it twice, once in 2021 with the Titans and then again last season. Kevin O’Connell took home the honors in 2024, and Kevin Stefanski won it for the second time in his career in 2023, after first winning in 2020.
As we roll deeper into October, every game matters. Can Ben Johnson keep the Bears defying the odds without Williams? Can Klint Kubiak ride this upset momentum and that first-year coach trend all the way to the top? It’s going to be a fun race to watch and see who truly elevates their team.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Fox Sports.
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